Category: Telegram Trading

The below assessment is provided under the disclaimer at http://TSP.Live/trading-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Assessment: Here’s a fun fact…

The last time the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) closed at or below the level it did yesterday (13.93 yesterday) was back on February 14th, 2020 (it achieved a low of 13.38…closed at 13.68)…three days later the COVID slide began. When the COVID slide ended in mid-March, the VIX reached a high of 85.47! Obviously, I am not predicting a global catastrophe which spikes the VIX that high, it’s more just a caution sign to me.

The saying for the VIX goes as follows: “When the VIX is low, it’s time to go [sell]. When the VIX is high, it’s time to buy.”

So, if you are reading this as a signal, it is a potential overbought indicator…leading to a bearish turn for the broader markets at these levels. Timing is of course the key.

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the disclaimer at http://TSP.Live/trading-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Assessment: Unlikely to have any news fireworks today. Most of the big events are ahead.

The Russell 2000 popped up yesterday and blew away the rest of the indices because CTA’s were reported to be covering their short positions. In case you wonder why that was out of whack. The market has recently been flipped on its head. The big tech that kept this market propped up through April and May is now underperforming everything else out there.

My DKNG position is moving nicely. Sure, I did buy it last year, but thanks to dollar cost averaging down and then selling covered calls against the position along the way I am in the green on it thanks to a much lower cost basis. I still plan to hold for the long-term on the position. Just nice to see it moving again!

Total crapshoot as to what we get today. I have talked about the dog days of summer for sports betting, that also happens in the financial markets too. It would be nice if the recent breakout were actually a true breakout that we could play. There is a trendline from the COVID low which sits around SPY $425. It’s the key line I will be watching. I would expect a retest of that line and then it will be assessing the likelihood of breaking down or using the trendline to spring higher.

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the disclaimer at http://TSP.Live/trading-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Assessment: Next stop in Bitcoin is likely to be the $23,512 pivot given it has broken all nearby pivots and the trendline. We have the key calculated pivot at $23,512 and the 200 SMA is approaching that level and would act as support. In between here and there is a price vacuum with only very minor support levels…which would probably just be a speed bump on the way down.

Bitcoin Daily Chart: https://sblk.io/s/Z00ou7fLfzfKTNR

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the disclaimer at http://TSP.Live/trading-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Assessment: The market pushed higher toward $430, but interestingly, it did so without big cap tech which has propped up and propelled the market when necessary.

The upcoming ideal entry either for bullish or bearish trades will begin with a retest of key support turned resistance at $420…preferably $415. Once you have a breakout, the optimal setup is the breakout drops back to test the key resistance it broke, consolidates there, does not breakdown and then moves higher to capture a new key resistance level.

If the retest of $415-$420 support is weak, and then breaks down, I like to play the downside. If the consolidation holds support despite tests, then I like to play the upside for a new breakout. So, let’s see how that retest works out and assess as it goes.

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the disclaimer at http://TSP.Live/trading-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Assessment: Very good short covering rally today. Not the question is can they go back and build a base of support at the SPY $420 level and use it to launch higher or is this just a blowoff top and it dies? Up to the bulls now to hold it.

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the disclaimer at http://TSP.Live/trading-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Assessment: Debt ceiling deal passed the house, as expected. Seems McCarthy caved for the most part. In the end, no fireworks for the market and any bounce will likely be short-lived. In terms of trading, some interesting weakness yesterday…and still no material bullish action. Big cap tech started to take it on the chin yesterday, and that’s not good for bulls. It’s big cap tech which kept this market propped up for the past several weeks. Without that, what’s going to push us higher?

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the disclaimer at http://TSP.Live/trading-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Assessment: Bulls stayed just above SPY $420. However, big cap tech, which has been the key to hiding the weakness under the hood, showed a couple cracks in the dam. We will see if the bulls can repair those today.

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the disclaimer at http://TSP.Live/trading-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Assessment: Markets are assuming a deal has been reached on the debt ceiling. The big cap tech stocks continue to be the place to hide! NASDAQ futures are up 1.13% this morning with the S&P up “only” 0.45% by comparison and the DOW down 0.09%.

We are coming off a long weekend, one in which volumes were down since Thursday. So, we could see decent volatility to open the day today as traders adjust their portfolios. I will be looking to see what things look like around 2-3pm ET for an idea of how the week might play out.

Oh and I was kidding about NIVIDIA going bankrupt, the attached tweet was from Jim Cramer. Cramer is known to be the kiss of death when he likes a stock. He touted SVB recently…and we know what happened to the bank. However, that’s not it. There is a laundry list of stocks that Cramer touted which went the exact opposite way. It’s quite comical to watch. He’s like the Mr. Poison for stocks. If Cramer says a stock is a good buy…I look to short it. If Cramer says a stock is a sell…I am looking to buy! LOL!

Let’s see what the week brings because if the debt ceiling deal passes and that catalyst is over, it will be interesting to see what the market does…because then it will just be about the usual stuff…earnings, valuations and outlook.

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the disclaimer at http://TSP.Live/trading-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Assessment: Looks like a debt ceiling deal is close. I am not sure what the market will do since nobody really believed a deal would not go through. Likely a minor relief bounce, but whether that can hold is so far showing to be unlikely.

SPY is again stuck in between $410 and $415…and the only thing really moving up in this market in a material way is large cap tech. All the money flowing there is now making those valuations very frothy.

Likely to be a very low volume day…which typically leans bullish…as we head into the holiday weekend.

Good luck in your trades!