bookmark_borderTelegram Trading

Key Algorithm Calculated Support Levels: 4140 (MEDIUM) / 4117 (LARGE) / 4100 (SMALL) / 4085 (LARGE) / 4045 (SMALL) / 4000 (SMALL) / 3973 (LARGE)

Key Algorithm Calculated Resistance Levels: 4250 (MEDIUM) / 4200 (MEDIUM) / 4195 (MEDIUM) / 4180 (LARGE)

Assessment: Dropped like a rock at the open yesterday and then right before we would have fell off the cliff to trigger some decent selling, the angels swoop in again and save the bulls! We are in that 4120 to 4200 range… same place we have been since April. So, not much going one way or another. We continue to go sideways and it is a good market for credit spread traders in options. Due to that 4120 to 4200 support and resistance, you can setup a spread right out side those ranges and then have clearly defined exists. Otherwise, trading in the middle of those two continues to be a crap shoot. Let’s see what the day brings. Good luck in your trades!

Current Telegram Position: GLD September 17th $177 CALLS / Entry Price $3.50 / Target Price $10.65 / Eject Price $1.50

bookmark_borderTelegram Trading

Key Algorithm Calculated Support Levels:  4180 (LARGE) / 4140 (MEDIUM) / 4117 (LARGE) / 4100 (SMALL) / 4085 (LARGE) / 4045 (SMALL) / 4000 (SMALL) / 3973 (LARGE)

Key Algorithm Calculated Resistance Levels:  4250 (MEDIUM) / 4200 (MEDIUM) / 4195 (MEDIUM)

Assessment: Decent decline in the market at the end of the day yesterday. It was hanging out in the clouds and then fell off a cliff. We will see if we get any follow through today, but I am not holding my breath. The way this market defies all logic, especially recently, has me holding back on making any major predictions as to what the end of the day means. So, I will sit back and see what happens. A market decline would be good for my GLD options position. Typically, traders will flock to gold as a safe haven in a major sell-off. Combine that with all the inflation talk and risks out there and that should make gold even more appealing to traders. As always, and especially now… let’s see what the day brings, because trying to read the technicals on this market is a crapshoot. Good luck in your trades!

Current Telegram Position: GLD September 17th $177 CALLS / Entry Price $3.50 / Target Price $10.65 / Eject Price $1.50

bookmark_borderTelegram Trading

Key Algorithm Calculated Support Levels:  4200 (MEDIUM) / 4195 (MEDIUM) / 4180 (LARGE) / 4140 (MEDIUM) / 4117 (LARGE) / 4100 (SMALL) / 4085 (LARGE) / 4045 (SMALL) / 4000 (SMALL) / 3973 (LARGE)

Key Algorithm Calculated Resistance Levels:  4250 (MEDIUM)

Assessment: Welp! Just when it looked like. I am happy with our GLD options position. Even the news on Friday should benefit that position in the weeks ahead. I’ll be honest, between myself and the algorithm, we can’t make heads or tails of this market. I say it every day so I will keep it short, based on almost every calculation in the algorithm and a multitude of charting analytics, the market is vastly overbought. I don’t think this will change anytime soon. It’s tough to get aggressively bullish and pay overvalued prices, but being a bear right now will put you in the asylum!

My strategy right now is simply to see what openings the market gives and to snipe positions here and there. It has worked well in the FMA recently… jumping in and out of FMA Radar and FMA Options positions. Not many, but a few and enough to build a little bankroll here and there. Bankroll we can hopefully put to use on some bargains when the market actually does sell-off. A lot of the move last week was on some big name stocks, versus a lot of broad based buying. Not good when a few are carrying the many. However, still doesn’t mean anything until there is actual selling. Could be a volatile morning, but let’s see what Monday brings! Good luck in your trades!

Current Telegram Position: GLD September 17th $177 CALLS / Entry Price $3.50 / Target Price $10.65 / Eject Price $1.50

bookmark_borderTelegram Trading

Key Algorithm Calculated Support Levels:  4195 (MEDIUM) / 4180 (MEDIUM) / 4140 (SMALL) / 4117 (LARGE) / 4100 (SMALL) / 4085 (LARGE) / 4045 (SMALL) / 4000 (SMALL) / 3973 (LARGE)

Key Algorithm Calculated Resistance Levels:  4218 (LARGE) / 4200 (MEDIUM)

Assessment: It was all looking so good for the sell-off, even the bounces were getting sold… and then the market launched higher and above key resistance in the final hour. Today the big news was the jobs report and it was a HUGE disappointment, but of course as I type, the market isn’t selling off as much as you would expect. We’ll see how this shakes out over the next few hours of trading. The Fed continues discussing the concern for inflation, but in veiled ways. The Fed talk just has the feel that they know something, but they are avoiding saying it. It is for this reason, among many others, that I moved into the GLD position yesterday. Now we will see how it plays out. The market moved above 4140 back on April 15th. Since then the market has watched 95% of the trading take place between 4140 and 4200. It has been the epitome of a sideways chop. Especially when you realize move of that chop was even tighter between 4180 and 4195! Trading this market requires patience and a get in, get out attitude. Until we break 4140 or 4220 in a material way, there’s not a whole lot you can do. Let’s see what today brings. Good luck in your trades!

bookmark_borderTelegram Trade

OK, I am buying September $177 CALLS for $3.50. The eject price will be $1.50 and target price will be $10.65. Obviously, I may close the position prior to either the eject or target being met. If I do, I will post an alert to Telegram. If I wasn’t buying the options, I debated going direct to the GLD stock itself.

Good luck in your trades!

bookmark_borderTelegram Trading

The 4180 level in the S&P is becoming more and more vital with every attempt that bulls make to regain that level. The final hour can always be exciting, let’s see what it brings. A lot of trading today has been inflation related. It seems like institutional traders are starting to take positions in options and stock for companies involved in energy, previous metals, and building materials. If there were some bad news on inflation spiking or that the current recovery is starting to plateau, it could be a big catalyst for a large scale market sell-off.

A lot of the trading right now is expecting a continued uptrend/rebound through the end of 2021. A full rebound through the end of the year is priced into the market. If all of a sudden we see signs that there is weakness there, that the rebound is slowing, we could see some strong selling. So, be sure to keep you stops tight on bullish position and perhaps even grab some hedges for your portfolio.

I am looking at a position for a possible Telegram trade. Market actually starting to move and getting more and more confirmation for a leg down, a real one, in the near term. I am looking at stock and options in GLD (Gold ETF). I may open something here before the end of the day depending on what the final half hour of trading looks like.

bookmark_borderTelegram Trading

Key Algorithm Calculated Support Levels:  4140 (MEDIUM) / 4117 (LARGE) / 4100 (SMALL) / 4085 (LARGE) / 4045 (SMALL) / 4000 (SMALL) / 3973 (LARGE)

Key Algorithm Calculated Resistance Levels:  4200 (LARGE) / 4195 (MEDIUM) / 4180 (LARGE)

Assessment: I thought the S&P was going to end up breaking through 4180 and holding it. So far, the 4180 level is showing as clear resistance. The failure of the bulls to regain and hold 4180 is a sign that the bears are starting to get active, feel some confidence and perhaps start the next leg down. All these little bread crumb clues help to back up that assumption. However, until there is a clean break of 4140, my confidence isn’t going to be very high. I am trading bearishly right now, but again, I am hardly “all-in”. The market has shown me over the past few months not to believe and sell-offs. I was asked what I see for the market for the coming months. The summer is tough. I bring it up the adage of “sell in May and go away” all the time. Last summer, even with traders having few options beyond sitting at the computer, volume was really low. In 2021, with travel starting to rebound strongly, we really could see trading volumes low until September. It’s just something to keep an eye on. Doesn’t mean we won’t sell-off hard if given a catalyst (like rising inflation). However, barring major catalysts, I could see low volume choppy market action for the next few months. I hope not because it is impossible to trade a choppy market, unless you day trade… and I do not. So, just a look at where we could do this summer. For now, let’s hope we see some selling, material selling and then I can load up on some stock and option bargains. At which point if the summer is uneventful, that’s OK. At least I have some positions at good prices. Good luck in your trades!

bookmark_borderTelegram Trading

Key Algorithm Calculated Support Levels:  4140 (MEDIUM) / 4117 (LARGE) / 4100 (SMALL) / 4085 (LARGE) / 4045 (SMALL) / 4000 (SMALL) / 3973 (LARGE)

Key Algorithm Calculated Resistance Levels:  4220 (LARGE) / 4200 (LARGE) / 4170 (SMALL)

Assessment: We finally got some selling yesterday, but it wasn’t quite an avalanche. The market was saved at 4140. Although as I discussed in an FMA update yesterday, while the market was saved, it wasn’t exactly on high volume. High volume on the bounce at the end of the day would have illustrated conviction by the bulls. So, I still would feel there is more selling to go. The key though is the 4140 level and then the 4117 level. If both of those break in the next day or two, I would have much stronger confidence that this is a leg down, versus just a minor correction in further bullish movement up the chart. I am definitely not interested in bullish positions right now, however I am not yet ready to jump in heavy on the bearish side. I am instead limping in, position by position. I have watched this market fake out bears too many times. We see some selling and think this is finally the one… than the bulls come roaring back. Eventually there will be that material sell-off. Maybe this is the one, but we can’t have it until we break 4140. Let’s see what the day brings! Good luck in your trades!