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Very interesting day today. It was options expiration and there was a feel of some serious flushing out at the end of the trading day. Does setup for a potential bounce on Monday. At that point then it is up in the air. I look forward to seeing how it plays out. Good luck in your trades!

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Busy day today in the trading content! The trend continues with every rally being sold into and sold into hard. After closing a number of profitable short positions in the FMA, I began to look at potentially opening a bullish position in the FMA to carry into next week. Essentially the markets are very oversold at this point in the short term. So, a bounce after options expiration Friday seems reasonable. However, the relentless selling is making me wonder if carrying a bearish position into the weekend is the better route. Crashes are rare, but hard selling during oversold conditions is the setup for one. We’ll see. I will hopefully get a hint or two in the next hour and setup a position before the close.

Also, keep those hedges in place! If I were scared of my DKNG position, buying a $20 PUT for April expiration based on the number of shares would be something I may consider.

Good luck in your trades!

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I continue to hold my DKNG position and am actually looking for a spot to double my position and dollar cost down. DKNG has and continues to be a position I am using long term. If I double my position here I reduce my cost basis to around $24. Which means if DKNG gets to $48 in the next 5 years, my position will have generated an average 20% annual return…which would surpass most mutual funds in that same time period. Yes, waiting five years is long, but that’s long-term investing. It was never intended to be a day trade and I said at the start that if the stock tanked I would double my position…which I plan to do. Mind you, nobody has complained about this situation, I am just reiterating my strategy with the DKNG position. The question for me now is when do I double? I would like to see DKNG set a base of support somewhere and then that’ll be my spot. If it’s $15, excellent, I will dollar cost down even further.

I think once the initial selling in this market subsides that DKNG will turn around faster than 5 years, but I have no problem sitting on this and playing other trades in the mean time. The FMA content is up substantially this month so I am not sweating DKNG’s loss because the entire position value for me has been covered by January’s gains. Again, that’s me though and everyone’s financial situation is different and why you should always consult with a licensed financial advisor on any activities.

Good luck in your trades!

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Assessment: HUGE earnings miss by Netflix and then Disney dropping by 5% after hours due to traders feeling their streaming service will have similar issues. Whether that is true or not remains to be seen. However, given the major sell-off that turned the indices from red to green, and now this after hours, combined with options expiration tomorrow…it could get wild! Strap in tomorrow!

I am looking forward to seeing how things go the first few hours and then assess from there. Good luck in your trades and the lesson of the day…always have hedges in place!!

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Assessment: Market tried to pop today, and it is in green, but decent decline from the high…showing that people still want to sell the rallies. Until that changes, the picture is bearish.

Good luck in your trades!

bookmark_borderTelegram Trading

Assessment: In the FMA at the end of 2021 I felt that the market would sell-off to start the year and bottom out in Q1 of 2022. Why? We needed to deleverage all these incredibly high multiples that existed thanks to all the money that was printed in 2020 and 2021. Also, whenever the Fed raises interest rates it is typically followed by a recession…so then there’s that angle too. However, the economy is relatively strong under the hood…at least so far.

So, I would like to see continued selling into February and then will be looking to use the sell-offs to get long. At the end of the day yesterday a number of the big boys (like TSLA) that have propped this market up the past two years and carried the indices are right at key support. A break of that support could lead to a flushing out of positions across the board. At which point we could reach a bottom quickly and then begin a slow climb back up. Obviously everything is a guess at this point, but it feels like we have more selling to go and that would fit with the calculations I had at the end of last year.

My DKNG stock is getting hammered BUT it was always intended to be a long term position. I thought $28 was a huge value, well I love $22. I may add to my DKNG position but I will wait to see if we get that waterfall selling and then I’ll grab some more. I’ll keep you posted if I do. Outside watching DKNG, I am looking at potential earnings catalyst trades and other short term positions to play the volatility.

Good luck in your trades!

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Assessment: Nothing overly exciting over the weekend from a trading standpoint. I always lay back on Mondays and since we are coming off a long weekend I will definitely sit back the first few hours and see how things play out. A couple interesting earnings this week so let’s see if we get any pizza option setups. Good luck in your trades!

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Not a bad week! Closed a +166% ROI trade here on Telegram and a +243% trade in the FMA. Earnings start to pickup a little with the shortened week next week, let’s see what it brings. Unless something major happens during the long weekend, the next updates will be on Tuesday.

Have a great weekend!