TSP Live Education: “What Should I Bet?”

Of all the questions that I get about TSP Live, wagering, etc., the above is the question I get asked all the time…”What Should I Bet?”

While it is the most common question, it is also the hardest for me to answer because every bettor is different.

I hear from about 10% of TSP Live subscribers. The other 90% just subscribe and renew without any fanfare or issues…I have never gotten a single message from them. The 90% are consistent subscribers and many have been with me 1,2,3+ years consistently. So, I assume the 90% of subscribers I do not hear from “get it”, and have developed their own strategies and methods for using the content. A method which has served them well…otherwise they would not be back month over month.

The other 10% of subscribers are a combination of those looking to learn, looking for advice to evolve and then a healthy number are straight lunatics…people who have no idea about the basics of true professional gambling, they do not utilize true bankroll management (although they are good at fooling themselves that they do) and they shit themselves after every losing bet…panicking within 2 minutes of the opening kickoff when their team isn’t up 21-0. It’s tough to work with the lunatic crowd, but they are also the loudest and most obnoxious of the bunch.

Given the myriad of different bettors out there who subscribe to TSP Live, there is no one answer as to what you should bet. I cannot count how many people want me to give them some mechanical strategy that if they just blind follow that strategy each and every day like a robot that they will make easy money betting in sports with little effort. I am sorry to say, making money as a professional bettor is not easy. It takes time, effort and intelligence to succeed. Many people can achieve success as countless TSP Live subscriber will attest, BUT it is not easy. Sportsbooks are not multi-billion dollar businesses because most people win at betting with no effort. So, with this in mind, let me share the three types of bettors most TSP Live subscribers seem to fit into, and then how I approach the content each day…because yes…every day is a new adventure and requires a unique approach.

One type of bettor is the person who does not like a lot of volume, who is not interested in exotics (teasers, parlays, rollovers) and will just wager on TSP Live sharp alerts (which carry a 1 unit rating…Oddmaker’s Report, TSP Live Radar, Known Bettor, KB Consensus, etc.) whenever they hit the Telegram channel. These bettors don’t use the analytics tables much, or the other selection content, but just sit back and wait for a TSP Live sharp alert to hit the Telegram channel or a 1 unit wager to hit the TSP Legal Pad (which also triggers an alert to Telegram when the Legal Pad gets updated) and then they bet it. Simple, low volume, but requires patience as there are not TSP Live sharp alerts every single day.

Another type of TSP Live bettor is the high volume bettor who wagers on anything and everything in TSP Live…all the TSP Live Radar angles, KB Consensus, Oddsmaker’s Reports, all the Algorithm Selections, all the public content (1st Quarter Algorithm, Twitter, Telegram, Go Fast And Win content, etc)…all the TSP Live subscriber content…anything they can get their hands on. It’s a style that is not suited for most gamblers. It requires a serious understanding that gambling is a grind and it requires a VERY STRONG bankroll management plan. Why? Because when you are betting volume, the swings will be that much more dramatic. Sure, you will have the days you pick up 10, 15 or even 20+ units…but you will also have the exact opposite too. Everyone can handle +15 units, but few can handle the -15 unit days…even when the -15 unit day follows a +15 unit day. So, you really need to have an honest assessment of yourself if you are going to be a volume bettor looking to grind. Having good risk and loss tolerance is ESSENTIAL for this type of bettor.

The third type of bettor, which contains the most successful TSP Live subscribers, are those WHICH DO NOT blind follow any content. These subscribers take in ALL the content put out at The Sharp Plays. These subscribers read all my notes, they use the analytics tables, they check Twitter and Telegram, they review all the exotic action (parlays, teasers and rollovers), they review all the TSP Live alerts and public content (like the Go Fast And Win tables), and combine all that TSP information with any other information they get from outside The Sharp Plays. At this point they take this boatload of information and then do something many novice…and many veteran gamblers will avoid doing…these subscribers use their brains (by looking at the performance metrics/records for the angles reported, comparing their own handicap of the games, assessing their current risk posture, assessing recent performance, etc.) to filter down all the content to the wagers they like the most…OR DARE I SAY PASS…because nothing fit their strategy for that day. These subscribers rarely blind follow any content. By being fluid based on the day and the action, these bettors are the most versatile and versatility (being able to think on your feet) is key to gambling success.

I am sure there are more bettors out there which mix the above types of bettors, but the three styles above tend to account for the vast majority of TSP Live subscribers. How do I wager using TSP content?

First, I am a very passive bettor. Although I consider myself passive, I am open to more risk than many, but I do not nearly bet every angle. I have strong bankroll management, I have a full tolerance for losing, and I enjoy using exotics regularly in my wagering. I accept that exotics, especially parlays, won’t win at a high percentage, but if I am patient and grind, over the long-term my exotics will be solid performers that provide a nice net profit year over year. I accept that mathematically (good article on statistics of drawdowns in sports betting) as an almost daily bettor that I am at risk for multiple drawdowns of up to -25 units (or more) in any given year. Yes…imagine how most would handle a 25 unit drawdown, but that is highly probable for a daily bettor. It’s not me saying it, it’s a full statistical analysis of sports betting, house edge, sharp bettor edge, etc. that generates this drawdown assessment. So, I am not like most bettors. Most bettors lack the tolerance for losing, which is essential in any gambling endeavor. Even if you make millions betting sports…there will be losses…A LOT OF THEM…so you need to be able to handle them. I realize this is not an easy living, but if I put in the time and effort can provide some healthy returns year over year. I have two different bankrolls. I have a serious bankroll and then I have a degenerate bankroll. The serious bankroll is for my material wagers. The degenerate bankroll is for high risk rollovers, pizza action, etc.

So, the above breaks down some of the characteristics I have as a bettor. With those characteristics in mind, how do I approach TSP content?

  1. I do not blind bet ANY angles. Sure there is content I tend to follow more often than not (like Book Positions, Group Buys or KB Consensus) but I DO NOT blind follow ANY angles. I assess every angle that comes out of TSP Live with an open mind and checking deeper into any wager before I proceed. I look at what the public is betting, what any models I have say, what bettors I respect are doing on the game, etc…and above all…how I feel about the bet/my handicap of the event.
  2. I look at whether sharp betting volumes are average, above average or below average for that sport that day (TSP Live Index table)…which tells me a little about the potential value in that league for the day. I look at whether the TSP Index is trending up…and thereby markets favor sharps and are against the public or trending down and markets favor the public and are against the sharps.
    • I am more than happy to pass on days when volume is below average in a sport AND/OR the Index is trending down.
    • My goal is not to have action every day. I feel it is essential to work in passing days into your gambling. Gambling is taxing both physically and mentally…and getting a day off here and there is healthy.
  3. I use exotics when I have concerns about the markets (to keep my unit risk low versus firing multiple straight bets). I will also use exotics when I am on a run and playing strong. Yes…exotics play a larger part in my betting than most professional bettors. It works for me, it doesn’t work for them…it is what it is. However, to use exotics you MUST have a high tolerance for losses. I will often lose 10 or 15+ units on parlays until I hit a run and collect 22 units during that run. At which point my parlays are +12 or +7 units. Sounds great, but few could weather the -10 or -15 unit run until the big win finally came. Most gamblers, especially casual bettors, do not have the same level of patience I do.
  4. Once I have gone through my assessment of the angles and the markets, then I will come up with any wagers I am going to pursue that fit my style and strategy.

So, while my strategy works for me, it may not work for 98% of gamblers, and that is the moral of the story. You have to assess the type of bettor you are, your risk tolerance, your loss tolerance, your bankroll management plan (or lack thereof), and above all your goals. If you are just betting for entertainment then you can approach the content DRAMATICALLY different from someone who is trying to earn an income bettor.

I hope the above helps you develop your own personal wagering strategy for using The Sharp Plays content or really ANY gambling content out there. Thanks for checking out The Sharp Plays and TSP Live! I wish you the ultimate success and enjoyment out of your gambling adventure!

Good luck!