Another football season comes to an end! When I look back on this past season, I see a lot of frustrating times…how many juicy parlays died on the last leg…on Sunday or Monday Night Football?!? Fucking Cowboys! How many bad beats or bad finishes did we get to wagers?!? How many times when we needed to win a key game to bail us out…the bet went down in flames?!? How many times did sharp money fade the same team over and over…and keep losing over and over on the fade?!? Plenty of losing days and weeks in the mix! Oh and this season was the first one in the last five where we didn’t cash BOTH the Prop Lock of the Year AND the Super Bowl spread winner. As I said this morning…that’s gambling…it isn’t all roses and it is not an easy way to make a buck (despite what many want to believe).
As you will see in the content recap below…while not everything had a winning record, the overall performance was pretty spectacular. When we start a new season in SIX months (YES…the football countdown has begun!!!), people look back on previous seasons and see the winning performance and records and think the next season ahead will just be an easy stroll from August through February with consistent 56% winners (day in and day out…week in and week out) and no pain, stress, agony or frustration along the way. I mean, look at the records below…sure looks like it was pretty easy…but it wasn’t! THERE WILL BE PAIN!!!!
In the mix of content that hits 56% over 355 selections…wow…that’s pretty nice…are several 0-5, 0-8, 0-10 runs that aren’t evident by just looking at the overall record. The 56% record misses that one weekend when you were pressing and chasing, with the KB Consensus 1-1 on the week and one KB Consensus bet to go…so you hammered that last KBC for a bailout…and it lost! It doesn’t consider that you passed on the TSP Live Radar for any wagering on a Saturday when it went 8-0…but you put 750 units on a Group Buy on Sunday…and it lost. The 56% record doesn’t consider that you finally subscribed to TSP Live in November when content proceeded to hit 40%…and then gave up after that one losing month and missed December…when the content hit 72% (yep that’s a 56% average). Now that’s how professional gambling really works…high short term volatility, but with long-term positive performance.
On a Monday morning in October, when the content had a 2-10 weekend…nobody wants to listen to me tell them to hang in there, and that by the Super Bowl the TSP content will finish with an impressive 56% winning record! In that moment, off the 2-10 weekend, the gambler is in the abyss…the content sucks…TSP sucks…TSP Live is a waste of money…they will never get a winning run…you can’t win at gambling…the universe hates them…etc.
The above sort of thing happens every season…often multiple times…and the people who should read this message will not. If I could show gamblers the future in those dark moments, off the 2-10 weekend, perhaps they would avoid pressing, chasing, and jumping from hot trend/handicapper to hot trend/handicapper…and instead just ride the ups and downs with a consistent plan to profit over the long-term…patient that the wins will come, even if they aren’t there right in the moment.
I emphasize the above because it’s lost on 96% of gamblers…and coincidentally 96% of gamblers lose money year over year. If you don’t want to accept gambling reality…I will politely pass on having you as a subscriber. I appreciate your support…and when you give up on the paid content because your patience is that of a meth addict who ran out of meth…I hope the free content delivers for you or that you find your Holy Grail of sports betting elsewhere. One that never loses and always wins every bet you need to win! May God Bless you on your journey…because you are going to need Him!
Gambling is not easy…and it takes work and consistency. If you experience a losing month, and then quit, only to then miss a winning month, and then come back to the content…you likely won’t have good results. We can’t time when wins and losses will happen. We can use tools like the TSP Index to help us manage our risk, but the best strategy in sports betting and in the financial markets is BUY and HOLD for the long term. If you have a good system and good content…the profits will always be there in the end…but not every day throughout.
For those of you who understand the above…thank you! I hope to bring the rest along with us, but if they don’t want to come…that’s OK too! Each and every year the subscriber base to TSP Live gets larger and larger. Until things stop growing…I will assume it is a sign that what I am doing resonates and the content works, because more and more of you keep coming back month after month…year after year! Especially when 90% of subscriptions each month are from returning buyers! Thanks to each of you I am able to expand the content and technology…and that has only made the performance that much better as the years have passed!
Now for the main event! Below is all the sharp reporting, analytics table, algorithm, and unit rated wager content from this past season…
Not included in the below records, but for reference, the preseason Football Futures Report had FIVE championship tickets between NFL and NCAAF…cashing TWO with Michigan +800 and Kansas City +650.
TSP Live Analytics Tables…
Radar 151-118 (56% and a +7.2% ROI)
KB Consensus 15-6 (71% and a +64.9% ROI)
Book Needs: High 1-0 (100% and a +91% ROI), Medium 7-11 (39% and a -25.6% ROI)
Book Positions 3-1 (75% and a +36.4% ROI)
Group Buys 4-5 (44% and a -15.2% ROI)
Sharp Props 6-4 (60.0% and a +20.9% ROI)
1st Quarter Algorithm 12-11-5 (52.2% and a -4.4% ROI)
Degenerate Portfolio (+6.08 units and a +10.3% ROI)…with an average bet of 0.20 units
Go Fast and Win Portfolio (+4.84 units and a +16.1% ROI)…with an average bet of 0.18 units
Add up all the records (non-Portfolios) and it is 199-156 for 56.1% winners and an ROI of +7.0% (6.977% to be exact)
I didn’t want to include the portfolio performance in the above since the portfolios use the above content to derive 99% of their wagers. So…the Degenerate Portfolio and the Go Fast and Win Portfolio combined for +10.92 units, off an average wager of only 0.19 units, and a combined ROI of +12.2% (12.232% to be exact)!
The take away from the above is while the content is a strong positive performer, when you use your brain and combine different tools, including AND ESPECIALLY bankroll management to place wagers…you can amplify that performance!
All sharp reporting, analytics and algorithm content had an ROI of +7.0%…excellent! However, Portfolio content performed 74.3% better with an ROI of +12.2% using the same content!
Well, my friends I have come to the end of my lecture today. Thanks again for spending some time with me this football season! If you are just here for football content, I hope you have a great off-season and can’t wait to see you back in August! If you are someone who bets everything…I’ll see you in the trenches tonight…back at the grind!