Category: Telegram Trading

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Assessment: Volume picked up a little yesterday, but I expect it to be a ghost town today…barring some sort of unforeseen event. There is no trading tomorrow for Good Friday. So, yesterday was perhaps a little portfolio adjusting before heading out for the long weekend…at least those who we still in the office.

I don’t think we get much more next week. The market is open on Easter Monday, but I think next week will bring the same as this week. The following week might see some action as traders return. I expect a slow sideways or slow upward grind next week. If some action and volume arrive, I will be ready to cover it. Until that action arrives…have a Holy Good Friday for those whom it applies and a Happy Easter!

See you back here on Monday!

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Assessment: It’s like watching paint dry. I am here and watching, but I really don’t expect to see anything this week or next with the Easter holiday. It usually is the same very year where the week before and after is dead, but this year it’s REALLY dead. Volume is 60-70% of the average daily volume and nothing is going anywhere fast.

Be very cautious buying options right now because that time premium is decaying faster than roadkill. Trading stocks up or down is presenting situations where the risk isn’t worth the reward because movement is limited. So, I won’t force any looks.

What I will do is update on Draft Kings. As you know I purchased DraftKings back in 2022 and have held since then. I bought more in the $13 area and now we sit well over $40. For those also in the stock, a large block of CALLS were purchased yesterday in August $65 DKNG CALLS (which means looking for the price to get above $65 by August expiration). Obviously there is ZERO guarantee that the stock gets there, but nice to see some institutions taking betting that it will. My goal has always been $70 for this stock on a long-term hold and so I will continue to hold. If the market collapses and price goes back into the $20’s by some miracle, I would add more to my position again!

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Assessment: It’s been a long time since I have seen a stretch in the markets where trading has been this dull for such an extended period. Even in the summer we get some bumps of action from time to time…even if it is a four day week as every Friday sees Christmas like volume in the markets.

The S&P 500 is parked essentially at all-time highs, but the bulls aren’t showing they are excited about it. Volume is well below average, and we have reached Easter season. Anytime there is a holiday, it is an excuse for traders to leave their desks for the week. The kids are out of school depending on whether their district gives off the week before Easter or the week after Easter. So, I do not expect much action this week or next week.

If these two weeks follow the usual pattern of holiday week trading, we will see very small movement, low volume and a bullish lean to the markets…potentially grinding higher by 1-2% over the course of this week and next.

I will be watching for some excitement, but it is about as exciting as watching paint dry right now!

Path Predictor (BTC): https://sblk.io/s/rxaOfbF9iqCGtA3

Bitcoin needs to make a new high otherwise we may have seen the top of this move. Without a new high we will be at risk of a lower high or “double top” which could see prices go lower. To me, the best looking technical picture for bulls would be consolidation at $50,000 and then another run higher.

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Assessment: The hint of rate cuts sparked a small rally yesterday, but for all the excitement and desire to see lower rates…the +0.91% move was rather muted. It further shows that I am not sure what this market could get, short of actual rate cuts, that would propel this whole thing higher. It seems like we have a bloated market but one without any real bullish catalysts to push it…and lacking any material bearish catalysts to cause it to sell. So we are grinding slowly upward…but there’s not a whole lot of money to be made in indices that grind slowly upward. A lot of downside risk for bulls, not much upside risk for bears…or so it appears based on yesterday’s action.

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Assessment: Market popped back up yesterday, but hardly anything exciting. It is simply that bulls moved back to decent resistance and bears had trouble holding the selling that they achieved on Friday. It can be a frustrating market that if you try to trade will create a very slow bleed in your portfolio. Neither bulls nor bears have been making any major money the past two weeks. Let’s hope that finally changes and someone breaks out.

In crypto, I still think for Bitcoin the optimal bullish setup would be a sell-off to $55,000, some strong consolidation at that price and then a move back up. There just isn’t enough price support from $55K to $75K (it almost got there). So, you need to start building a base of support. Still tough to buy here, but also one of those where you don’t want to be caught with a short position when this launches like a rocket again. Sit and wait right now is the way I see it.

Bitcoin: https://sblk.io/s/gYxBULFzTXsk6CnB

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Assessment: We saw some selling on Friday with a decent gap down, but then price did very little after that point. Despite not going anywhere after the gap down at the open, volume was VERY STRONG. It can be yet another sign that institutions are keeping this propped up through futures manipulation and then dumping their shares to weaker hands. Eventually when that is done the bottom will fall out, but when that will be is the question.

Right now, the SPY $510 level is the key support. We closed below it on Friday, but close enough that it could pop up and over the $510 mark on Monday morning to keep anyone guessing. Right now it is simple, break of SPY $500 and the bears have the ball and are running. A close above $510 and technically, although they have looked pretty weak, it is the bull’s ballgame.

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Assessment: Is it June? It looked like it in the markets today. We dropped at the open and then did little else but trade in a very tight range. Volume was very good, but the bulls held close enough to key round number support ($510 in SPY) to keep everyone guessing even if the close was below.

Continue to see great volume on selling days and nothing on the up days. Would tell under the hood that people are trying to dump shares with prices here. What happens when there is nobody left to buy those shares to keep price propped up? I don’t know. Maybe the bulls rush in, but it is a concern.

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Assessment: Since February 22nd, the S&P has gained a whole 9 points or 1.7%. It’s not a bad gain, but it’s not one of those where it has gone down 4%, up 5.7% and settled at up 1.7% for the period. Those types of swings provide good trading opportunities. A slow grind upward that averages 0.1% gain per day is tough to trade in a material way…let alone swing trading.

Options trading is not an option, unless you get into premium selling. It’s a slightly more complex strategy that requires margin, but it profits well in slow moving or sideways markets. Stocks are an option, but if you are trading margin that small ROI for the risk inherent gets even smaller.

Nobody likes to sit on their hands and wait for the bulls or bears to grab the reins and do something, but that’s about all you can do.

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Assessment: A whole lot of sideways action in the S&P 500 with neither bulls nor bears making much money…but options premium sellers sure are as both bulls and bears are having trouble getting returns.

In crypto, BTC tickles $70K. The move has been so parabolic people are saying this can’t possibly keep going up. Oh yes it can! Sure, it will eventually see a strong sell-off, but guessing when exactly that strong sell-off will occur is the essential part of success on playing the sell-off. A market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain liquid fighting it.

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Assessment: Bitcoin has the feel of “The Little Engine That Could”…”I think I can…I think I can…I think I can…”

The move has been aggressive, but it is starting to get tighter and tighter. I am thinking some consolidation is coming to build a base of support at lower prices. We will see where that support lies and then I will make an assessment as to whether I am interested in going bullish or if a larger correction is underway.

Bitcoin Path Predictor: https://sblk.io/s/N7nRCoF5IgIvtxN

Good luck in your trades!