Category: TSP Live Education

As we approach the end of the NFL season, we begin to hear about the “must win” situations for teams to get into the playoffs along with many player incentives that come into play in the final week.

Let’s first discuss the “must win” situations. The problem for gamblers is that they tend to have this approach to “must win” situations as though the book is unaware that these exist and has not already worked the “must win” angle fully (and perhaps even more) into the current prices (spreads and moneylines) for those “must win” teams. Is the book going to provide value on a “must win” team when they know the public will be falling all over themselves to bet it? No, the book will likely have a price that is negative, or at best neutral value on the “must win” team. If the public is going to blind bet these teams, the book says, “let’s screw the public as much as possible on price”, and they do. So why do gamblers think betting these “must win” teams are akin to a “Lock of the Year”? I don’t know, but it has been happening for decades…each and every year…and the casual gambler never learns. What the definition of insanity again?!?! LOL!

Remember though, if fading “must win” situations won 70, 80, 90, 100% of the time…the book would adjust accordingly. Gamblers tend to be all or nothing people. If you tell the casual gambler that you really don’t want to bet on the “must win” team because they are almost ALWAYS a negative or neutral value, the casual gambler then translates that to “betting the must win team will lose 100% of the time and thereby fading the must win team will win 100% of the time”, or some other outrageously high percentage. When the angle doesn’t hit at that rate they immediately think the fade angle is bullshit, that the must win team was a value, and they give up on the fade…at which point the books smile like the Grinch on Christmas Eve!

Fading must win teams is usually where the value lies, but you aren’t going to hit 80% blind fading the must-win teams. However, over time the “must win” fade will grind a profit. The profit can be amplified by finding the key must win teams to fade. At which point you could achieve a consistent 54-57% win percentage with such a strategy.

Casual gamblers don’t think 54-57% of the time is a good win percentage. Believe it or not, the 54-57% win percentage provides you a +3 to +9% (rounded) edge against the house. That means for every $1 you wager, you can expect to return $0.03 to $0.09 cents of profit. Doesn’t sound like a lot but that change on every dollar adds up…ask any casino! Edge in craps is only 1.36% (Don’t Pass…lowest house edge in craps), which means the casino makes $0.0136 on every dollar you bet, but that means millions over time!

Anyway, enough with the math, the point is, be careful unloading on the “must win” teams because “must win” doesn’t mean “will cover”…or even “will win”.

When I am looking to a fade a “must win” team, I like to let the public run the “must win” team’s price up for me, and then I will look to fade that “must win” team. In filtering these situations I also like to look for a “must win” team that is going up against a motivated opponent. A perfect example this week is Tennessee. I do not consider this some “Lock of the Year” but just a bet I like because I think Tennessee will be motivated to play at home and Jacksonville is in a “must-win” situation. The public pushed this up from 3.5 to 5.5 and I love the 5.5 or even the 5. We’ll see how it goes, but I know for a fact there is no value chasing Jacksonville at -5.5 and likely, since the book already knew the Jags were a must win team when they set the Jags -3.5 opening price…that the Jags at -3.5 isn’t a value either!

Regarding the player props, someone passed along a few links (thank you for that) and assuming the data within in correct there are several players that are within range of achieving stats this week which will provide them some bonuses. It sounds great…I have a motivated player looking to have a big payday so they and the team will do everything to get them that payday. However, once again if some idiot on Instagram or Twitter has this information, you can be sure the books do as well and worked it into the prices. So, the prices for the following players may see those players cash the OVERs and get their incentives…or the teams may avoid those players to save a couple bucks. So…nothing is a lock betting either way. However, most casual gamblers go in expected all these players to get all their incentives and they bet that way. Just because a player wants to get a bonus does not mean the team wants to pay it out…and thereby the team could game plan around or simply cut the player out to avoid it. We see this all the time when teams sit players on the verge of getting a bonus. So, it is tough to say that a player needing an OVER on some stats metric will automatically get it. With that said, here were the most talked about players and what they need for their incentives.

Very few books have prices up for these yet, but just some things to look at and then something I will followup addendum below. For now here are the most talked about player incentives…

DeAndre Hopkins (TEN) needs 49 yards for a $1M bonus and 7 catches for a $250K bonus.

Chris Jones (KC) needs 0.5 sacks for a $1.25M bonus.

Dalton Schultz (HOU) needs 4 catches for a $250K bonus and if he gets 6 catches he gets another $250K (total $500K).

Austin Ekeler (LAC) needs 110 total (Rush & Rec) yards for $100K bonus.

Lavonte David (TB) needs 0.5 sacks for a $150K bonus.

Bet Smart…good luck!

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Article Addendum published January 11, 2024

Here’s how the player incentives finished…

Hopkins completed a pass…and got 7 catches for his $250K bonus, but unfortunately the team could not give him the big one for his 49 yard bonus of $1M. Instead Hopkins got 46 yards. Anyone betting the OVER on yards would have lost.

Christ Jones did get a sack.

Dalton Schultz got 5 catches for the first $250K bonus, but did not get the 6 catches for another $250K bonus…missed by just one grab!

Ekeler got only 49 total yards and missed his $100K bonus.

Lavonte David did not get a sack.

So, Twitter/X and Instagram were all abuzz last week about these “lock” player props because the players wanted to get incentives. In the end, out of the 7 possible bonuses…three were achieved…Hopkins got 7 catches, Jones got half a sack, and Schultz got 5 catches. A 3-4 record…not exactly a good angle as was the gist of this article going into the weekend. The vig made that 3-4 even worse.

Throw in the fact that the books were well aware of all incentives and jacked up the player props just enough to make them good negative values…knowing the public would still bet them…and bet them they did. The players didn’t get their incentives, the bettors did not get a bonus either…but the books had a nice payday on these!

Just because a team “must win” does not mean they will…but it usually means fading the “must win” team will get you point spread value as the public hammers the “must win” team because “must win” always equals “will win” (sarcasm). The theory in the previous sentence was my reason for taking the Titans +5 over “must win” Jacksonville. In the end the Titans were an outright winner!

At the same time, people bet the player props as though players needing incentives would clean up and collect all those incentives. In the end, it was the players that got nailed as incentives cashed at a 43% rate. To cash a prop with the average juice of -115 (a littler higher this week), you need to win 53.5% win percentage.

Thanks for giving this article a read!

Return on Investment (“ROI”) is the most important metric for betting performance of an angle, model, strategy, or other content. Whether it is sports or some other form of gambling like poker. Why? ROI let’s you know the return for every $1 that you put in action on that content/strategy. It is more important than units gained, because unlike units gained or lost, ROI takes into account the sample size of the content combined with the performance of that content. I have always tracked the ROI on the records tables since the tables were created. However, the emphasis for many followers was the “unit rating” of content versus the ROI. Unit performance is not the optimal means of assessment for developing a wagering strategy. Furthermore, if you are blinded by unit tracking versus taking the content on its face, you will miss a lot of quality opportunities. A perfect example was the information from yesterday’s Oddsmaker’s Report. It was not an official Book Position, but the information basically showed the book wanted to take as much money on the Eagles +3.5 as they could because they felt the Cowboys -3.5 were the optimal side. In the end Dallas won 33-13! Yet, this information did not fit the setup to be logged or graded…but that clearly should not have been seen as discounting any bit of the information. A LOT of quality content published at The Sharp Plays doesn’t fit a standardized label for tracking…but that should not mean it has no value to wagering.

Why is ROI the most important metric for performance? The TSP Live Radar readings of 60-64 are +16.2 units and KB Consensus angles with readings of 70-79% are +13.1 units. In the race for higher unit performance, clearly the TSP Live Radar 60-64 is the winner. However, on an ROI basis, the TSP Live Radar 60-64 readings have a +4.0% ROI whereas the KB Consensus 70-79% readings have a +37.4% ROI. As you can see, the TSP Live Radar has a higher unit performance, but the KB Consensus has a far superior ROI. The difference in ROI means you will make exponentially more money betting KB Consensus 70-79% readings versus the TSP Live Radar 60-64 readings. Both are clearly profitable and good content to utilize, but when deciding on wager sizing and how much to dedicate to a bet, the ROI is a far more important metric. What those ROI’s mean is that for every $1 you put into action on TSP Live Radar 60-64 readings, you can expect to get back 4 cents of profit. For every $1 you put into action on KB Consensus 70-79% readings, you can expect to get back 37 cents of profit. ROI provides a clear assessment of what bit of content is more of a grind versus the other.

It is important to recognize that Return on Investment (ROI) IS NOT the return on your bankroll. ROI is the return on every $1 you put into action on wagers. If you have a model that delivers a +5% ROI, that doesn’t mean your bankroll will go up 5% betting that model. Here’s how it comes into play…

Let’s assume you have a $10,000 bankroll. If you use the typical per unit calculation for your bankroll (i.e. bankroll/100 = per unit wager) then you would have a $100 per unit wager. If your model has 1000 bets per year (roughly 3 per day), and you wager $100 on each bet, your expected net profit from your model is $5,000 (1000 bets x $100 per wager = $100,000 betting volume x 5% ROI = $5,000 net profit)…or essentially 50 units for comparison (i.e. $100 = 1 unit).

The above scenario means that your $10,000 bankroll actually achieved a +50% bankroll ROI for the year ($5,000 profit against a $10,000 bankroll) based on the 5% ROI your model achieves in profit on every dollar wagered. As you can see…it doesn’t take a high ROI to generate a very healthy profit and return on your overall bankroll.

If you ask any pro their performance, it will not be in units…but rather ROI. ROI is why betting groups want to get as much money down on games as possible…the more money you get down the more your ROI pays off! ROI is also why card counters want to get as much money down on a hand of blackjack as possible when the count is in their favor. The key is that “big money” still has to be calculated within a bankroll management plan.

What is a good ROI in sports betting?

Everyone I was ever around in the sports gambling industry over the past 25+ years felt that a long-term ROI of 7-8% was the absolute pinnacle…with most professionals achieving a 3-5% ROI.

If you Google “average roi for sports betting”, articles will come up discussing everything from 3-6% to 5-7% or 6-7% depending on where you look. Most agree the ceiling is 7%…which is what I have come to know. Those hitting in the 8% area consistently and with a large sample size were very few and very far between during all my time in the industry. One article discusses 5-10%, but I have never, in 25+ years in the business, witnessed a gambler who achieved beyond the 8% ROI ballpark over the long-term.

Conclusion & Updates

ROI is by far the most efficient assessment for performance compared to unit performance which is relative to the number of games bet. ROI takes into account both units won/lost and bet volume.

My primary reason for removing “unit tracking” (except in the case of personal wagers I am sharing or the Degenerate and Go Fast and Win Portfolios) is far too many people felt that if something was being “graded on a 1 unit basis” that it meant I was advising them to bet 1 unit on the content. Oh and if something wasn’t being graded then the information was worthless. It was absolutely not the case. However, no matter how many times I said I was not advising you what to bet, that unit tracking is just done to log performance for assessment of specific angles, or that personally I did not blind follow any content…people preferred just to be alert/notification zombies. Blind following everything or nearly everything that was published has never been the optimal use for the content…and it’s not the reason I publish it. In recent weeks, including in “The Ultimate Guide To Using The Sharp Plays Content“, I discussed ways of using TSP content not as a blind follow, but illustrated how to expand your thinking on optimal content uses. I discussed how the goal of the information is to make you an educated bettor by showing all angles of the action and information floating around the betting world.

My hope is that the change from “unit tracking” to ROI will eliminate any misconceptions. As TSP Live subscribers have seen with my Degenerate Portfolio action, I bet nowhere near all the content that I post. However, all the content does help me to decide on wagers. Sometimes I follow the content when I like the setup, sometimes I ignore the content because it doesn’t line up for me for one reason or another, sometimes the content prompts me to engage in a different wager, many times I will hold the content/information and look for in-play or other opportunities to use it. Bottom line…I assess and make note of 100% of the content I publish so I am an informed bettor…even though I might only end up wagering on 10% of it.

Hopefully, with all this in mind, the next time any content comes out you will check the ROI and perhaps size your wagers or strategize your wagers differently. If the content isn’t tracked, hopefully you won’t just disregard it as useless. If it were useless I would not spend the time to post it. Maybe you even take a completely different angle using the information provided (like I did with a few examples in the “Ultimate Guide” article). The most successful subscribers for several years running have been those who use the content to dial in selections or setups they like…not those looking to simply blind follow.

“One Last Question TSP…”

If The Sharp Plays content as a whole is profitable every year, why can’t I just bet on everything?

The answer is those looking to blind follow tend to be lazy (no offense) and are hoping for no effort success in sports gambling…that’s why they want to blind follow and not think about what and how to wager. Someone who is trying to take the “easy way” to sports betting usually means they aren’t mentally prepared to handle the extreme ups and downs that occur when dealing with the volume necessary to blind follow. Yes, if all TSP content picks up 100 units in a year…why not just bet it all and get 100 units? It’s simple…there will be runs along the way when you bet all the content where you lose 15, 20, 25+ units. At which point 99% of you looking to blind follow will never survive. You will lose control of your bankroll management and completely implode due to the extreme emotions that occur during cold runs. You will press, chase, and be long gone when the content warms back up and gives you a 15, 20, 25+ unit run to offset.

The lack of wagering fortitude is why most bettors, even some veterans, can’t handle the swings of high volume wagering. So, when you can’t handle the swings of high volume wagering, the best strategy is to carve down the content into manageable volume that you can handle. One way to help you decide on what content to proceed with might be the listed ROI. However, just remember, a lot of incredibly quality content cannot be standardized into a category and tracked (i.e. semi Book Positions or rumors of group buy activity, etc.)…but are very worthy of your assessment for wagering.

Good luck!

?People don’t think a 10% ROI on sports bets is a big deal.

At 3 bets per day you would double your bankroll every year at that rate!

A $100 per unit bettor ($110 risk), $10,000 bankroll, would have a $22,045 bankroll ($12,045 profit) after 1 year.#ExponentialGrowth pic.twitter.com/mbD4NYdzQh

— The Sharp Plays (@TheSharpPlays) March 8, 2024

Of all the questions that I get about TSP Live, wagering, etc., the above is the question I get asked all the time…”What Should I Bet?”

While it is the most common question, it is also the hardest for me to answer because every bettor is different.

I hear from about 10% of TSP Live subscribers. The other 90% just subscribe and renew without any fanfare or issues…I have never gotten a single message from them. The 90% are consistent subscribers and many have been with me 1,2,3+ years consistently. So, I assume the 90% of subscribers I do not hear from “get it”, and have developed their own strategies and methods for using the content. A method which has served them well…otherwise they would not be back month over month.

The other 10% of subscribers are a combination of those looking to learn, looking for advice to evolve and then a healthy number are straight lunatics…people who have no idea about the basics of true professional gambling, they do not utilize true bankroll management (although they are good at fooling themselves that they do) and they shit themselves after every losing bet…panicking within 2 minutes of the opening kickoff when their team isn’t up 21-0. It’s tough to work with the lunatic crowd, but they are also the loudest and most obnoxious of the bunch.

Given the myriad of different bettors out there who subscribe to TSP Live, there is no one answer as to what you should bet. I cannot count how many people want me to give them some mechanical strategy that if they just blind follow that strategy each and every day like a robot that they will make easy money betting in sports with little effort. I am sorry to say, making money as a professional bettor is not easy. It takes time, effort and intelligence to succeed. Many people can achieve success as countless TSP Live subscriber will attest, BUT it is not easy. Sportsbooks are not multi-billion dollar businesses because most people win at betting with no effort. So, with this in mind, let me share the three types of bettors most TSP Live subscribers seem to fit into, and then how I approach the content each day…because yes…every day is a new adventure and requires a unique approach.

One type of bettor is the person who does not like a lot of volume, who is not interested in exotics (teasers, parlays, rollovers) and will just wager on TSP Live sharp alerts (which carry a 1 unit rating…Oddmaker’s Report, TSP Live Radar, Known Bettor, KB Consensus, etc.) whenever they hit the Telegram channel. These bettors don’t use the analytics tables much, or the other selection content, but just sit back and wait for a TSP Live sharp alert to hit the Telegram channel or a 1 unit wager to hit the TSP Legal Pad (which also triggers an alert to Telegram when the Legal Pad gets updated) and then they bet it. Simple, low volume, but requires patience as there are not TSP Live sharp alerts every single day.

Another type of TSP Live bettor is the high volume bettor who wagers on anything and everything in TSP Live…all the TSP Live Radar angles, KB Consensus, Oddsmaker’s Reports, all the Algorithm Selections, all the public content (1st Quarter Algorithm, Twitter, Telegram, Go Fast And Win content, etc)…all the TSP Live subscriber content…anything they can get their hands on. It’s a style that is not suited for most gamblers. It requires a serious understanding that gambling is a grind and it requires a VERY STRONG bankroll management plan. Why? Because when you are betting volume, the swings will be that much more dramatic. Sure, you will have the days you pick up 10, 15 or even 20+ units…but you will also have the exact opposite too. Everyone can handle +15 units, but few can handle the -15 unit days…even when the -15 unit day follows a +15 unit day. So, you really need to have an honest assessment of yourself if you are going to be a volume bettor looking to grind. Having good risk and loss tolerance is ESSENTIAL for this type of bettor.

The third type of bettor, which contains the most successful TSP Live subscribers, are those WHICH DO NOT blind follow any content. These subscribers take in ALL the content put out at The Sharp Plays. These subscribers read all my notes, they use the analytics tables, they check Twitter and Telegram, they review all the exotic action (parlays, teasers and rollovers), they review all the TSP Live alerts and public content (like the Go Fast And Win tables), and combine all that TSP information with any other information they get from outside The Sharp Plays. At this point they take this boatload of information and then do something many novice…and many veteran gamblers will avoid doing…these subscribers use their brains (by looking at the performance metrics/records for the angles reported, comparing their own handicap of the games, assessing their current risk posture, assessing recent performance, etc.) to filter down all the content to the wagers they like the most…OR DARE I SAY PASS…because nothing fit their strategy for that day. These subscribers rarely blind follow any content. By being fluid based on the day and the action, these bettors are the most versatile and versatility (being able to think on your feet) is key to gambling success.

I am sure there are more bettors out there which mix the above types of bettors, but the three styles above tend to account for the vast majority of TSP Live subscribers. How do I wager using TSP content?

First, I am a very passive bettor. Although I consider myself passive, I am open to more risk than many, but I do not nearly bet every angle. I have strong bankroll management, I have a full tolerance for losing, and I enjoy using exotics regularly in my wagering. I accept that exotics, especially parlays, won’t win at a high percentage, but if I am patient and grind, over the long-term my exotics will be solid performers that provide a nice net profit year over year. I accept that mathematically (good article on statistics of drawdowns in sports betting) as an almost daily bettor that I am at risk for multiple drawdowns of up to -25 units (or more) in any given year. Yes…imagine how most would handle a 25 unit drawdown, but that is highly probable for a daily bettor. It’s not me saying it, it’s a full statistical analysis of sports betting, house edge, sharp bettor edge, etc. that generates this drawdown assessment. So, I am not like most bettors. Most bettors lack the tolerance for losing, which is essential in any gambling endeavor. Even if you make millions betting sports…there will be losses…A LOT OF THEM…so you need to be able to handle them. I realize this is not an easy living, but if I put in the time and effort can provide some healthy returns year over year. I have two different bankrolls. I have a serious bankroll and then I have a degenerate bankroll. The serious bankroll is for my material wagers. The degenerate bankroll is for high risk rollovers, pizza action, etc.

So, the above breaks down some of the characteristics I have as a bettor. With those characteristics in mind, how do I approach TSP content?

1. I do not blind bet ANY angles. Sure there is content I tend to follow more often than not (like Book Positions, Group Buys or KB Consensus) but I DO NOT blind follow ANY angles. I assess every angle that comes out of TSP Live with an open mind and checking deeper into any wager before I proceed. I look at what the public is betting, what any models I have say, what bettors I respect are doing on the game, etc…and above all…how I feel about the bet/my handicap of the event.
   • IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT EVEN THOUGH EVERY TSP LIVE ALERT WILL CARRY A 1 UNIT RATING…IT DOES NOT MEAN I AM WAGERING 1 UNIT ON THAT ANGLE. IT SIMPLY MEANS THE ANGLE WILL BE LOGGED AND TRACK TO CONTINUE THE PERFORMANCE METRIC (I.E. RECORD) OF THAT ANGLE.
     
2. I look at whether sharp betting volumes are average, above average or below average for that sport that day (TSP Live Index table)…which tells me a little about the potential value in that league for the day. I look at whether the TSP Index is trending up…and thereby markets favor sharps and are against the public or trending down and markets favor the public and are against the sharps.
   • I am more than happy to pass on days when volume is below average in a sport AND/OR the Index is trending down.
   • My goal is not to have action every day. I feel it is essential to work in passing days into your gambling. Gambling is taxing both physically and mentally…and getting a day off here and there is healthy.
     
3. I use exotics when I have concerns about the markets (to keep my unit risk low versus firing multiple straight bets). I will also use exotics when I am on a run and playing strong. Yes…exotics play a larger part in my betting than most professional bettors. It works for me, it doesn’t work for them…it is what it is. However, to use exotics you MUST have a high tolerance for losses. I will often lose 10 or 15+ units on parlays until I hit a run and collect 22 units during that run. At which point my parlays are +12 or +7 units. Sounds great, but few could weather the -10 or -15 unit run until the big win finally came. Most gamblers, especially casual bettors, do not have the same level of patience I do.
   
4. Once I have gone through my assessment of the angles and the markets, then I will come up with any wagers I am going to pursue that fit my style and strategy.

So, while my strategy works for me, it may not work for 98% of gamblers, and that is the moral of the story. You have to assess the type of bettor you are, your risk tolerance, your loss tolerance, your bankroll management plan (or lack thereof), and above all your goals. If you are just betting for entertainment then you can approach the content DRAMATICALLY different from someone who is trying to earn an income bettor.

I hope the above helps you develop your own personal wagering strategy for using The Sharp Plays content or really ANY gambling content out there. Thanks for checking out The Sharp Plays and TSP Live! I wish you the ultimate success and enjoyment out of your gambling adventure!

Good luck!

I am going to discuss parlays and teasers more when it comes to using them during cold runs. I do use parlays and teasers during hot runs, but that’s pretty easy to understand…when it’s hot…parlays and teasers will provide nice returns. However, when it is cold, why would they be beneficial?

The following is just my two cents on the topics. Everyone is different. You may not agree with my thoughts on any subject, and that’s all good, but don’t expect me to change my idea on them. My ideas have been honed through my personal wagering and success over the past 25+ years…I am likely not changing.

Parlays

I am a big proponent of the use of parlays in my wagering strategy. I won’t rehash what I said in previous articles I wrote like Parlays – A Strategic Betting Tool or Parlays Aren’t Just For Suckers Anymore. If you are interested you can take a deep dive into those articles, including getting a look at the math behind parlays, by clicking the links above.

For me personally, I use parlays on an almost daily basis. I may not fire them for 1 unit every time, but I like to use them because it allows me versatility in my wagering. I can secure 1,2,3+ wagers at prices I like early in the day (or week), especially if the selections don’t yet warrant 1 unit straight wagers for me.

I like using parlays during a cold streak because when content turns it tends to be a sharp positive turn. The higher the win percentage of the content being used in the parlay, the greater your edge and ROI in a parlay.

Another reason I like parlays when it is cold is because it minimizes my risk, while still giving me action. If it’s a good day of content in the cold, I can often see a nice return on that low risk. If it remains icy, I likely limited my risk dramatically by betting one three leg parlay for 1 unit instead of three 1.1 unit straight bets.

Teasers

Like parlays, teasers in a hot run are obviously going to perform great and will only further expand your win percentage as you get extra points. I find teasers can be helpful in a losing run because often the losses on sharp action are by a thin margin in a losing run. Think of all those cold days you have had…how many times would you lose a bet by a point…or worse…by the hook?!? You know that torture…and you always lose a tight one when you need that win the most! Of course not every loss in a cold streak is tight to the price, but more of your losses tend to be by tight margins than large ones.

Using teasers in your wagering during a cold streak will help to minimize losses (one teaser for 1 unit instead of 2 or 3 straight bets for 1.1 unit each). Plus by using a teaser the extra points sometimes will turn what would have been a straight bet loser into a teaser winner!

My one overlying strategy that I use with teasers, whether doing them in a hot run or a cold run, is as follows…

DO NOT BET A TEASER BASED ON WHAT THE TEASED POINT SPREAD WILL BE. BET A TEASER BECAUSE YOU LIKE THE BET AS IT IS AT THE CURRENT SPREAD.

So, if I like the Miami Dolphins -10, and would be open to betting Miami -10, then taking Miami in a teaser would be an optimal bet for me.

If I did not like Miami -10, but I do like them -4 in a 6 point teaser (hence why I might decide to use them in a teaser), I SHOULD NOT BET THEM IN A TEASER FOR THIS REASON.

Only bet games in teasers if you like them at the current spread. Don’t make teaser decisions based on the adjusted spread you would get in a teaser. I know, it runs counter to what many people might say and how most novice bettors look at teasers. However, it was a lesson my betting Yoda taught me and I see the value to it all the time.

If you are taking a teaser to get a spread from a price you don’t like to a price you like…that’s not good. If you are taking a teaser to get a price you like to an even better price…now we are cooking!

How do I feel about Wong teasers? I think the books have caught up and they move prices to screw and minimize the edge of Wong players now. So, I don’t pay them much mind nor do I get concerned with this angle in my teaser assessment.

I will tend to avoid crossing zero on a teaser (i.e. Taking Tampa Bay -3 and teasing them to +3), teasing college totals, or doing basketball teasers. Emphasis is on “tend to” in the previous sentence. It is not “always”. There will be times I cross zero despite the lower value…or I will tease basketball…or I will tease college totals. It’s just that all those occasions will be relatively rare…just not non-existent.

Good luck!

Rollovers are a name I just began using when I referred to a wager where you take the risk and profit from one bet and roll it onto another one. It’s basically the leverage of a parlay but with the freedom of a straight bet. For more details I have an article titled “What Is A Rollover?“. Just click the title link to be taken to it on TheSharpPlays.com. So, that covers what a rollover is, now the question is why use them?

Rollovers allow me to use a very low amount of bankroll risk (0.1 units, although technically a rollover can be started for any level of risk you would like to use) with the potential of a large payout through rolling risk and profits. For example, I started a rollover on Twitter in March for 0.1 units, and thanks to success in rolling the risk and profit from one wager to the next I was able to turn that 0.1 unit of bankroll risk into over +7.3 units of profit! It gave me 73 to 1 return on my initial risk!

Rollovers are great to use when the Index is trending down, when the markets are cloudy or mixed, or when I have concerns about the quality or potential performance of sharp angles on a given day or in a given time period. By using a low risk rollover I can have action to angles I like, thereby I am active if things perform well, but if they do not, my risk was minimal.

Most ALL of us have some degenerate in us. Degenerate in that we like to have action every day or perhaps enjoy watching a game on TV…and want some cash on it. Instead of firing 1 unit or 0.5 units to feed the degenerate beast inside, use a rollover. You get some action to sweat, risk is minimal if it goes against you, and if you win you can roll that wager onto the next one! Even if you build that 0.1 units of initial risk into 1,2,3+ units and you lose then…you only had exposure in your bankroll to 0.1 units, the rest was house money…yet you probably had a lot of fun when you were rolling that 1,2,3+ units. If that wager were to win…oh boy…now we are really having fun!

Good luck!

Part I (originally published on 5/12/23 as a TSP Live Insider article)

My discussion much of this week was about knowing what type of market you are in…and betting accordingly. To quickly recap, I stated there are three types of betting market environments. I discussed these three betting environments using a time period of monthly (i.e. good/bad/even months), but really they can be used for any time period or league/sport to describe performance. The three types of environments are simple…

1. Strong winning
2. Deep losing
3. Flat (these are the periods/leagues up a little, down a little or truly “flat” at break-even)

It’s important to note that not every league/sport may be in the same environment at the same time. We have seen where many (perhaps most) months which have sports/leagues in ALL THREE of the categories above. Some league is killing it in a given month, some league is the exact opposite in a given month and all the other leagues are in between…grinding up or down. Sometimes it’s just a #1, #2 or #3 month overall across all sports. Whatever the case, know where you are on both a macro (month/quarter overall and by league/sport) and micro (weekly/multi-week overall and by league/sport).

I discussed in the Degenerate Club Reports this week how to handle these environments and what to be aware of for your betting. Is there a way to predict where we are in a cycle? Nothing is perfect, but there is definitely a tool which will help. Let me introduce you to The Sharp Plays Index (click here and can also be found in TheSharpPlays.com website menu).

The Sharp Plays Index is a pretty simple tool which looks at all the betting activity from public rated accounts and all the betting activity from sharp rated accounts…by individual sport and across the whole market…and assesses the performance.

When a market sees a lot of public strength and sharp weakness, it will tend to dip down to 0.8 to 1.1 for a low. When a market sees a lot of sharp strength and public weakness, it tends to run up to 2.9 to 3.5 on the TSP Index. So, how can we use this?

If you look at the TSP Index through the link above, you will see soccer is running the hottest. Should be no shock if you have paid attention to the soccer intel. However, we should be aware that because this is usually the high-end (2.9 to 3.5) of how hot sharps get that a turn could be coming in soccer. So, I will keep betting soccer, but I will be cautious that if soccer starts to turn. I won’t assume we remain in a printing money atmosphere for soccer because we could be due for regression…given how high it is on the Index. Conversely, I see NBA got as low as 0.5 and has been trending up. I am expecting some public regression given how hot the public has been (13-2-1 ATS on favorites…although not every favorite was a public play, but 90% were). So, perhaps this upward momentum in NBA is a sign that some progression is coming for sharp money…and maybe for the dogs too.

What about the sports markets overall? Are they too hot and nearing a possible turn/regression or are they a little chilly and about to warm up? Take a look at the “TSP-I” line on the chart. The TSP-I line takes into account all the sports you see on the chart AND every other sport/event that the book accepts wagers on and it assesses the overall sharp to public performance. I have also recently added a 5 day moving average, “TSP-I 5-SMA” to help show where the momentum is. When the TSP-I is above the moving average, it means sharps are on a little run. When the TSP-I is below the moving average line, it means the public is picking up steam and sharps are struggling.

Like any technical analysis tool used for the financial markets, The Sharp Plays Index is back looking and not forward predicting. However, by knowing where we have been and the current trajectory and location on the table, we can get a better idea of where we are headed…compared to just flipping a coin or guessing. If it’s been a hot run in something or overall, check the chart to see if we are at 2.0…meaning there is more room to keep running before we get into the danger zone of being too hot (2.9 to 3.5)…and should be cautious of a turn coming.

So, I don’t make any money out of pointing you to The Sharp Plays Index and it is a free tool that anyone visiting TheSharpPlays.com can access. So, I am not promoting the TSP Index here for some self-serving purpose or so you see ads on that page (I don’t accept advertising). I am letting you know about this tool simply because it is overlooked or not known by so many bettors. Be sure to bookmark the page. The link for the Index can also be found anytime on the TSP Live Dashboard Quick Links menu. The TSP Live Dashboard is accessible through the front page and website menu at TSP.Live…or the direct link at https://tsp.live/tsp-live-alerts/.

Like anything, the TSP Index is not some Holy Grail that will guarantee success. However, if you are having trouble checking the temperature of a current market or overall, be sure to stop by TheSharpPlays.com and check out the TSP Index to see how things are trending and where they stand!

Part II (originally published on 6/12/23 as a TSP Live Insider article)

The premise of what I covered in Part I was using the TSP Index in conjunction with the moving average to find turns in the market…when to be aggressive and when to be passive in your betting. If you are unfamiliar with the TSP Index, you can visit it by clicking here.

This past week we had a crossover of the TSP Index and the TSP Index’s 5 day moving average. What the hell does that mean? When the “TSP-I” line is above the “TSP-I 5-SMA”, it is a signal that the market is trending to the sharp money and against the public. When the “TSP-I” line is below the “TSP-I 5-SMA” line it signifies that the public is outperforming and sharp money is underperforming.

Of course, nothing is some voodoo magic where as soon as the TSP-I line moves above the moving average that the content will be 75-0 on angles reported each day and when below the line the angles will be 0-75. It’s just that, as followers of the Index since 2019 know, it can definitely tell you where you are in the sharp and public cycle. The past week, as covered in the DCR, the TSP-I line moved above the 5 day moving average. When it did, the content has outperformed each day since that time. It’s effectively been a positive grind. I’ll keep rolling until that one day comes and the “TSP-I” dips below the “TSP-I 5-SMA”. The dip below the 5 day moving average will be the canary in the coal mine that I should watch my betting because there is a change in the momentum.

Regardless of what people may think, sharp money grinds profits, not through consistent printing of money, but through periods of progression (winning runs) and regression (losing runs). The catch is that the progression runs are usually just a little longer and a little stronger than the regression runs…and that’s where the profit is made.

Conversely, regardless of what people think of the public, the public also goes through periods of progression runs (winning runs) and regression runs (losing runs). The catch for the public bettor is the regression runs are usually a little longer and stronger (especially stronger because the public presses and chases when losing…something sharp bettors avoid) than the progression runs.

There you go, those two paragraphs are 100% the two sides of the betting markets. The sharps win a little more than they lose…but they still lose…and badly sometimes. The public loses a little more than they win…but they still win…sometimes going on incredibly white hot runs as we see from time to time. As such, whether a public bettor or a sharp bettor, it’s all about riding the waves. The goal of the TSP Index is to be alerted to a change in the tide, help identify the waves, and identify who is riding the at any given time. I give you, The Sharp Plays Index!

I could write a thesis about the TSP Index. It is one of my favorite tools and I use it on a daily basis. The previous article which I provided a link to above will help to bring you up to speed. The main purpose of today’s update was simply to note that the “TSP-I” line is above the “TSP-I 5-SMA” line which means I am planning to bet normal as the sharp bettors are in control right now. When the TSP I moves below the TSP-I 5-SMA…I am still open to betting but I will get VERY PASSIVE and cautious with my betting. If you read the article I linked above, you will also see how you can know when the public or the sharp money is getting too hot or cold and a trend change is likely. Then you can use the moving average crossover (discussed here) to add confirmation that the turn has arrived. Nothing is perfect, but for those who religiously use the TSP Index on a daily basis, it is a tool they never want to see go away. It takes two seconds to check it out each day…it’s worth the time.

That’ll do it for me today. I hope you have a wonderful day and good luck in your action!

The below originally appeared as a TSP Live Insider article on June 27th…

I hear it all the time…”sharps don’t bet lines that high”…”or sharps would never bet a -300.” Both of these statements are completely false. There is no such thing as a line being too high that sharp money would not bet if it were a value.

Today’s early sharp buying actually provides an example of this. In CONCACAF Gold Cup, Canada opened as a -500 chalk and was pushed right up to -800 by sharp money. Surely, if I reported this as a sharp buy, and not as part of this article, people would have sent me those “no way sharp money bets -500.” Can I ask you why not?!?!

Usually the answer becomes something along the line of “sharp money will never win enough to cover losing -500 juice.” Therein lies the tell…this person is just spouting bullshit and has no idea what they are talking about. You see, if something should be -800 as the fair value, and the book is offering you -500 on that wager…that’s a value! If you know something has an 88.89% chance of happening (a -800 price), but the book is pricing it as having only an 83.33% chance of happening (a -500 price), assuming your price/valuation is correct…you WILL NEVER LOSE MONEY over the long haul betting those situations. It is mathematically impossible to lose money given those parameters.

With that in mind…a no lose mathematical guarantee…why won’t sharps bet the -500?!?!? You might then say, but how do you know the sharp money is pricing it correctly?!?! Well, if they are rated as sharp by the book then they have a track record of success betting values…and thereby we could assume there is a decent chance they are pricing this match correctly.

The most famous example of this is the Mayweather/McGregor boxing match. The public was going nuts for McGregor…taking him at every turn and it kept the line in the area of -500 to -550. However, anyone who realized this wasn’t going to be a close match, likely priced Mayweather in the area of -1500 to -2500…thereby the -500 is a TREMENDOUS value. If you are constantly betting -500 prices that should be -2500….yeah you will take a big loss when you drop a -500 bet…but that’s likely just giving back a portion of PROFITS betting on these situations.

So, don’t think for a second there is a line at any level that sharp money will not bet if that line is considered a value by the sharp bettor.

That’ll do it for me today. I hope you have a wonderful day and good luck in your action!

Every football season there are always new people to the content, and many are unsure the best way to follow. So, I thought I would share one strategy that many veteran TSP Live users go with. It’s simple, it tends to provide only 2-3 selections each game day and it has had a very strong performance year over year…and dating back to The Sharp Plays content coming to Twitter in 2011. No, it is not blind following the KB Consensus…although that is a proven option over the last three years since the analytic launched. However, following KB Consensus is something everyone can easily figure out. What I am talking about is something that might not come to mind right away…following the individual selections I use for parlays or rollovers.

Of course, if you are betting my rollover or parlays then you are following those selections. What I mean is using the wagers in those exotics to place straight bets. Yes, when I have a three leg parlay, there are many TSP Live subscribers who bet the three leg parlay straight, sometimes betting a round robin with those same plays (would have worked well yesterday) and then betting each of the legs as straight bets. Now obviously that can be a lot of action if you are betting 1 unit on all those wagers, so each bettor needs to assess comfort and their financial situation which is a whole other topic. I am just talking about how to narrow down the angles you wager on when the content is overwhelming or in busy wagering days…or if you just don’t have time to handicap for yourself on a particular day.

Why does this strategy of using the parlay/rollover legs as individual wagers work? When I am moving forward with a rollover or parlay, whether Twitter, Telegram or in TSP Live, I am typically selecting what I see as the best content at that moment…in my opinion and assessment/handicapping for that day. I want to hit a three team parlay, so I am going to pick the three best wagers I see on the board to make up that parlay. It’s not too much to then assume that the individual wagers in my parlays or rollovers will perform great as straight bets. I mean if parlays are profitable for over +330 units the past 12 years…then probably those legs within the parlays would be nicely profitable as well. Look at yesterday…my parlay lost, but betting the legs went 2-1. On Saturday, my parlay went 0-2-1. Overall it was a 2-3-1 weekend for betting the legs of the parlays I put out. So no, it is definitely not a perfect strategy, but it has its benefits in filtering the content. Just betting the parlay legs took you from over 40 angles in TSP Live this weekend down to 6. Yes, the KB Consensus worked better, but there’s a reason long-time subscribers religiously follow the wagers in my parlays…over time they are a solid grind and when the parlays cash it is a nice bonus on top.

It is important to see how I am wagering on the parlays as well. Am I just betting candy money, at which time I am likely taking shots and not overly confident in the wager, or is the wager(s) part of a rollover where I am firing 0.3, 0.5 or 1+ unit?

My goal with TSP Live and The Sharp Plays content is to get people to think and then wager. I think paying and blind following a handicapper or service is an awful idea. You do not learn anything and as most of you have seen, blind following most handicappers out there never works. If it did, you would be reading someone else’s newsletter today and not mine. So, I still feel that with any content you should review and assess based on all the information in front of you. However, despite my opinion on how best to use the content, some people just want to blind follow. If that’s you, then my public and subscriber parlays and rollovers are a great source for wagers…if you don’t have time to think that day.

That’ll do it for me today. I hope you have a wonderful day and good luck in your action!

Parlay strategy could honestly be a thesis, but it would get very boring with math and stats. So, I will touch on a couple quick items on parlays. First, you won’t hear a lot of sharp bettors use parlays. They will cite the “sucker bet” nature of the bet and that is true….if you are a sucker and hitting less than 52.38% of your spread bets…then parlays will be a good way for you to dump a lot of money. However, if you hit better than 52.38%…you can turn parlays into a weapon against the book! For a deeper dive, I would refer you to a previous article on parlays, one of a few that I have on TheSharpPlays.com… CLICK HERE or for the direct link… https://thesharpplays.com/parlays-arent-just-for-suckers-anymore/

When I talk about parlays in this article, I am referring to my 1 unit parlays, not candy or pizza money parlays which tend to be about taking shots. My 1 unit parlays are strategic for me. So, with that in mind, let’s dive in.

First, my parlay design is simple, I just look at what I feel are the top 2,3,4,5 angles out there and put them into a parlay. No special mathematics or assessment beyond sorting out the content into what I like best…then tying those angles together. If they are indeed high percentage angles then I am optimizing my edge against the book based on expected long-term win percentages.

Do I use Round Robin parlays? Yes! If you don’t know what a Round Robin parlay is, give it a Google. Many times, like the parlay on Saturday, my parlays go down by 1 leg. Using a Round Robin (for example to turn a 4-leg parlay into FOUR 3-leg parlays) on Saturday’s parlay action would have cashed for a profit…and I would have another one riding the Giants tonight for more profits!

So, if I have a 1 unit 4-leg parlay, what should you bet on the FOUR round robin parlays that would be generated? I would want to keep this around 1-1.5 units…so thereby 0.25 to 0.40 units of risk per round robin would be the max.

What happens if the first leg of a 1 unit parlay goes down? Will I re-bet the other legs in a new parlay? Obviously I do not have a hard and fast rule for every situation, but I am open to re-betting the parlay. I did this on Saturday when South Alabama looked awful early on and the other legs were still to come. When South Alabama looked like trash, I just put in a new parlay with the remaining legs and did it for 1 unit. I am glad I did because it won…BUT…there is a risk…your losses can add up if the subsequent legs in the parlay also go down.

What about keying a selection? Keying a selection means to have a play you like and do multiple parlays or wagers tied to that play. Yes, I will often key a game I like in multiple exotics. Yesterday was a great example. I had the Buffalo Bills -2.5 as a 1 unit straight bet for the My Handicapping game in this week’s newsletter, I also had Buffalo in a 1 unit parlay I bet in the TSP Live content AND a 1 unit parlay I had from the previous day (me replay of the S Alabama parlay when S Alabama was sucking)…plus I had the Twitter rollover active on Buffalo -150! So, that’s 3.2 units of bankroll risk tied to the Bills. I am comfortable with that, and would not have cried if the Bills lost, but like everything, you have to assess whether you would be comfortable dropping 3.2 units if the Bills went down…killing the straight bet and the parlays. Again, there are those reading this who think a 4,5,6,7+ unit loss is something that should NEVER occur in professional gambling. You my friend are highly uneducated on gambling realities…no offense…just trying to help!

Parlays are not for everyone because they require TREMENDOUS PATIENCE! There are days I lose 2-3 units on parlays alone. I have people who shit themselves when they lose 2-3 units in a week. So, my parlay style might not work for these individuals. Being a parlay bettor requires you to understand one key thing…

PARLAYS WILL LOSE A LOT. There are occasions when I am down 10-15 units on parlays in my personal betting and then I connect on a longshot 20-1 parlay and nail a 6-1 parlay as well…next thing I know I went from -15 units to +11 units. Everyone can handle the +26 unit day…few can weather the -15 unit run in the process. So, if you want to bet parlays, losing a lot is something you have to accept…gotta weather the storms because parlay wins and losses, like everything in gambling, come in runs!

Also, the new domestic books that have come online since sports betting became accepted nationally will offer a lot of parlay boosts. If you are an advantage bettor, who is disciplined, using these boosts only expand your edge against the house on parlays…take these boosts when offered. I am not talking about the boosts that involve premade parlays the sportsbook is offering. Those premade parlays the book wants you to bet are a joke. I mean the boosts where you can create any parlay and the book is giving you 10,20,30% bonuses on the payout for those parlays. It is a great way to expand the edge and ROI for a successful parlay bettor…even if the limits for the boost are low ($50 or $100)…it’s still worth taking advantage!

That’ll do it for me today. I hope you have a wonderful day and good luck in your action!