I will have pricing for football season published tomorrow around this same time. So, keep an eye on the Telegram channel.
Every year I start by saying the same thing…it’s an exciting time, but for your own sake, have a realistic expectation of what is ahead this football season. There will be ups and downs. There will be epic wins and depressing losses. There will be winning days, weeks and months…and losing days, weeks, and maybe even months. You never know what you will get, so don’t go in with a plan as to how you are going to make your money this season. Every season plays out differently and if you have an expectation, all you are doing is setting yourself up to be disappointed. Lady Luck doesn’t give a shit about your plans!
Last season, TSP Live content saw a winning September and October, but November lost due to a three week cold stretch during the month. When the three weeks were over…the content absolutely printed money through the end of the year (2023). What do I mean by “printed money?!? Well…
The TSP Portfolio in December 2023 picked up a WHOPPING +12.7 units…on an average risk per wager of ONLY 0.22 units…DELIVERING AN INCREDIBLE +47.3% ROI for the month!
A +47.3% ROI means that for every $1.00 you risked on TSP Portfolio wagers in December, you got back $0.473 in profit!
Some people completely lost their minds after three losing weeks back to back to back in November…and quit TSP content…regardless of the winning performance for the football season up to that three week stretch. Those same people then missed a record breaking December! The folks who missed the run did so because they could not be patient and wait out the cold run which inevitably leads to the next hot run…and it sure was hot! If you believe the pro’s don’t have cold runs then either you are new to this business (welcome…and I hope to help educate you on the ins and outs of gambling) or a moron…there are no other options.
If you would like further football season prep, you can read the article I put out at this time last year detailing lessons to take into the football season: TheSharpPlays.com/football-strategy-2023-24-edition/
With my “get ready” disclaimers out of the way, what is the plan for football 2024-25?
First, the NCAAF and NFL futures report will be published Wednesday, August 28th!
The TSP Portfolio will be the featured content given its performance since launching almost two years ago. It has been a fan favorite as it provides a guide on how I use the overwhelming amount of content delivered by The Sharp Plays. The difference with the Portfolio for the season ahead will be that the Portfolio will incorporate more of the angles on the analytics tables (TSP Live Radar, KB Consensus) and the content itself (like Group Buys and props). Last year I did not use many of the TSP Live Radar and KB Consensus angles because they were being graded on a 1 unit basis…and people wrongly assumed they should be betting it for 1 unit plus the Portfolio wager. The purpose of 1 unit grading for angles was to simply to develop a performance metric for assessment, not as a wagering guide. A performance metric is simply creating a record and ROI so when an angle appears you have a frame of reference as to how that angle performs (wins, losses, win percentage and ROI). Given the Portfolio has been the featured content each day, I believe many people understand the Portfolio is the wagering guide on how I use the content and the logging and grading of angles is solely to maintain a performance metric. So, the Portfolio will be using many of the analytics angles and intel (like Group Buys or Prop Fades for example) for wagers.
What about wager size for the TSP Portfolio?
In football, the average TSP Portfolio wager tends to be 0.22 units. However, risk can run over 1 unit if the setup is there to warrant such a wager…or I am in the midst of a rollover. As a reminder, the TSP Portfolio is designed for novice bettors in terms of unit risk. Advanced bettors typically will use a multiple of the risk listed. For example, I regularly discuss in the content that I use a 5x multiple…meaning when the TSP Portfolio has a 0.22 unit wager, I am risking 1.1 units…or when the TSP Portfolio makes 12.7 units of profit in December 2023…yeah, that was a +63.5 unit December! See what I mean about record-breaking?!?
Signup for TSP Live @ https://TSP.Live/tsp-live
The Sharp Plays content will cover every sport in action during the football season…it is never just about football. However, football will get priority in terms of coverage. Once football has been reviewed in full, if there is time, then The Sharp Plays will dive into the action in other sports for that day. It does mean that Saturday and Sunday will mostly concentrate on football given the size of the cards and the action. I know we all love Saturday Premier League, but a full Saturday NCAAF card gets priority. Once that NCAAF card is covered in full in the morning, I will check out soccer or whatever other sports are going on and report any information for those as well. If it is a busy day of action, nothing beyond football will likely be covered…FYI.
As you probably have already noticed on the TSP.Live Sports Dashboard (link in website menu and on home page), football season will see the return (they are active right now) of the TSP Live Radar table, the KB Consensus table and the Book Needs table. The KB Consensus is one tool that gets everyone’s blood flowing. The records speak for themselves on all these tools…and yes, they are back and active as I type this article right now. It’s a quiet Week 0 so far, so no angles popping yet on the tables…but I expect something to show as the week moves along and action comes in.
The Oddsmaker’s Report intel is something that is really present throughout The Sharp Plays content almost every single day of the year. Just because a specific TSP Live Oddsmaker’s Report alert isn’t issued doesn’t mean the intel from the book’s chat is not constantly flowing into The Sharp Plays and present within the content in various ways. However, during football there is enough high level content that individual Oddsmaker’s Report alerts will be issued…so yes, those are back too!
Last year, the Go Fast and Win weekly podcast, hosted by Fake Morgan Freeman, replaced the TSP Newsletter and delivered a wealth of information in 10 minutes or less…typically 5 minutes or less. The podcast will return again next week for Week 1 of NCAAF and will run through March Madness…with only a couple weeks off in the mix! Each week will feature selections that carry TSP Portfolio unit ratings as well!
The free content for football will revolve around the TSP Bot on Telegram reporting sharp buys & other information. The day will start with the free Score Prediction analytic posted to Twitter and Telegram. The Score Prediction analytic was solid in football last year and I hope for the same this year for my lovable freeloaders out there! I appreciate you following!!
The new content launched for this football season is TSPInsiders.com! The season will start out with just Tony and The Wolf as the sources available for purchase…but will likely expand before the season comes to a conclusion. Sources at TSP Insiders will continue to provide bonus content to TSP Live Sports subscribers. Sources will also have paid selections each week, but I am not looking to have an overwhelming amount of paid TSP Insiders content. The goal will be to keep it to 0-5 paid selections each week. If someone is running hot, they might ride the run until it dies and perhaps could have 5 or more selections in a week. More selections will be a good thing because again it means someone is running HOT!!! If someone is cold, obviously the sources are not going to be firing a lot of selections, let alone paid selections, so there might not be any TSP Insiders selections in a given week depending on short term performance. On average, I would expect 1-3 paid content selections from TSP Insiders each week to open the season.
Yes, TSP Insiders is an extra expense, but it is not necessary to success. It will likely expand your profits and returns for football, but as the TSP Portfolio has shown up to this point, it does just fine on its own. So, if purchasing TSP Insiders selections does not fit within your bankroll, don’t sweat it. Keep grinding and you will get there financially if you want to purchase them down the road. If not, once again…the TSP Portfolio does just fine without the added TSP Insiders content.
Expect the TSP Portfolio to incorporate all the paid TSP Insider selections (which will comprise around 10% of the Portfolio’s action this football season). The other 90% of TSP Portfolio wagers will come from the free and paid TSP content in the form of wagers from the TSP Live Radar, KB Consensus, Oddsmaker’s Report, bets I like, bonus content in TSP Live from TSP Insiders sources and anything else that pops up and looks good!
When it comes to my strategy…my strategy is very fluid. I go in with no expectation or preconceived notions. I will follow the TSP Index as a guide on how to wager, I am open to all wager types and sizes. My strategy will be dictated by performance of the content and my feel through 30+ years of gambling experience and will be reassessed by me every single day. In the end, I expect another winning season but as I have said…how we get there is anyone’s guess. So, I will just leave emotion at the door, be patient and grind! Summers have always been very volatile for performance, but this summer was one of the most consistent and best summers of content of all-time. I believe this was the case not because it was a lucky year, but because I was patient and listened to the Index. I didn’t force MLB angles just because it was MLB season and it paid off in avoiding a lot of bad beats and bad breaks along the way…but at the same time there was still plenty of regular MLB action in the mix.
Feel free to send any questions by completing the form on the contact page. Thanks again for joining The Sharp Plays on another journey through football! Get your helmet on and strap in…it’s going to be a WILD RIDE…LET’S GRIND!!
Good luck!
Signup for TSP Live @ https://TSP.Live/tsp-live