Category: TSP Live Education

I am going to discuss parlays and teasers more when it comes to using them during cold runs. I do use parlays and teasers during hot runs, but that’s pretty easy to understand…when it’s hot…parlays and teasers will provide nice returns. However, when it is cold, why would they be beneficial?

The following is just my two cents on the topics. Everyone is different. You may not agree with my thoughts on any subject, and that’s all good, but don’t expect me to change my idea on them. My ideas have been honed through my personal wagering and success over the past 25+ years…I am likely not changing.

Parlays

I am a big proponent of the use of parlays in my wagering strategy. I won’t rehash what I said in previous articles I wrote like Parlays – A Strategic Betting Tool or Parlays Aren’t Just For Suckers Anymore. If you are interested you can take a deep dive into those articles, including getting a look at the math behind parlays, by clicking the links above.

For me personally, I use parlays on an almost daily basis. I may not fire them for 1 unit every time, but I like to use them because it allows me versatility in my wagering. I can secure 1,2,3+ wagers at prices I like early in the day (or week), especially if the selections don’t yet warrant 1 unit straight wagers for me.

I like using parlays during a cold streak because when content turns it tends to be a sharp positive turn. The higher the win percentage of the content being used in the parlay, the greater your edge and ROI in a parlay.

Another reason I like parlays when it is cold is because it minimizes my risk, while still giving me action. If it’s a good day of content in the cold, I can often see a nice return on that low risk. If it remains icy, I likely limited my risk dramatically by betting one three leg parlay for 1 unit instead of three 1.1 unit straight bets.

Teasers

Like parlays, teasers in a hot run are obviously going to perform great and will only further expand your win percentage as you get extra points. I find teasers can be helpful in a losing run because often the losses on sharp action are by a thin margin in a losing run. Think of all those cold days you have had…how many times would you lose a bet by a point…or worse…by the hook?!? You know that torture…and you always lose a tight one when you need that win the most! Of course not every loss in a cold streak is tight to the price, but more of your losses tend to be by tight margins than large ones.

Using teasers in your wagering during a cold streak will help to minimize losses (one teaser for 1 unit instead of 2 or 3 straight bets for 1.1 unit each). Plus by using a teaser the extra points sometimes will turn what would have been a straight bet loser into a teaser winner!

My one overlying strategy that I use with teasers, whether doing them in a hot run or a cold run, is as follows…

DO NOT BET A TEASER BASED ON WHAT THE TEASED POINT SPREAD WILL BE. BET A TEASER BECAUSE YOU LIKE THE BET AS IT IS AT THE CURRENT SPREAD.

So, if I like the Miami Dolphins -10, and would be open to betting Miami -10, then taking Miami in a teaser would be an optimal bet for me.

If I did not like Miami -10, but I do like them -4 in a 6 point teaser (hence why I might decide to use them in a teaser), I SHOULD NOT BET THEM IN A TEASER FOR THIS REASON.

Only bet games in teasers if you like them at the current spread. Don’t make teaser decisions based on the adjusted spread you would get in a teaser. I know, it runs counter to what many people might say and how most novice bettors look at teasers. However, it was a lesson my betting Yoda taught me and I see the value to it all the time.

If you are taking a teaser to get a spread from a price you don’t like to a price you like…that’s not good. If you are taking a teaser to get a price you like to an even better price…now we are cooking!

How do I feel about Wong teasers? I think the books have caught up and they move prices to screw and minimize the edge of Wong players now. So, I don’t pay them much mind nor do I get concerned with this angle in my teaser assessment.

I will tend to avoid crossing zero on a teaser (i.e. Taking Tampa Bay -3 and teasing them to +3), teasing college totals, or doing basketball teasers. Emphasis is on “tend to” in the previous sentence. It is not “always”. There will be times I cross zero despite the lower value…or I will tease basketball…or I will tease college totals. It’s just that all those occasions will be relatively rare…just not non-existent.

Good luck!

Rollovers are a name I just began using when I referred to a wager where you take the risk and profit from one bet and roll it onto another one. It’s basically the leverage of a parlay but with the freedom of a straight bet. For more details I have an article titled “What Is A Rollover?“. Just click the title link to be taken to it on TheSharpPlays.com. So, that covers what a rollover is, now the question is why use them?

Rollovers allow me to use a very low amount of bankroll risk (0.1 units, although technically a rollover can be started for any level of risk you would like to use) with the potential of a large payout through rolling risk and profits. For example, I started a rollover on Twitter in March for 0.1 units, and thanks to success in rolling the risk and profit from one wager to the next I was able to turn that 0.1 unit of bankroll risk into over +7.3 units of profit! It gave me 73 to 1 return on my initial risk!

Rollovers are great to use when the Index is trending down, when the markets are cloudy or mixed, or when I have concerns about the quality or potential performance of sharp angles on a given day or in a given time period. By using a low risk rollover I can have action to angles I like, thereby I am active if things perform well, but if they do not, my risk was minimal.

Most ALL of us have some degenerate in us. Degenerate in that we like to have action every day or perhaps enjoy watching a game on TV…and want some cash on it. Instead of firing 1 unit or 0.5 units to feed the degenerate beast inside, use a rollover. You get some action to sweat, risk is minimal if it goes against you, and if you win you can roll that wager onto the next one! Even if you build that 0.1 units of initial risk into 1,2,3+ units and you lose then…you only had exposure in your bankroll to 0.1 units, the rest was house money…yet you probably had a lot of fun when you were rolling that 1,2,3+ units. If that wager were to win…oh boy…now we are really having fun!

Good luck!

Part I (originally published on 5/12/23 as a TSP Live Insider article)

My discussion much of this week was about knowing what type of market you are in…and betting accordingly. To quickly recap, I stated there are three types of betting market environments. I discussed these three betting environments using a time period of monthly (i.e. good/bad/even months), but really they can be used for any time period or league/sport to describe performance. The three types of environments are simple…

1. Strong winning
2. Deep losing
3. Flat (these are the periods/leagues up a little, down a little or truly “flat” at break-even)

It’s important to note that not every league/sport may be in the same environment at the same time. We have seen where many (perhaps most) months which have sports/leagues in ALL THREE of the categories above. Some league is killing it in a given month, some league is the exact opposite in a given month and all the other leagues are in between…grinding up or down. Sometimes it’s just a #1, #2 or #3 month overall across all sports. Whatever the case, know where you are on both a macro (month/quarter overall and by league/sport) and micro (weekly/multi-week overall and by league/sport).

I discussed in the Degenerate Club Reports this week how to handle these environments and what to be aware of for your betting. Is there a way to predict where we are in a cycle? Nothing is perfect, but there is definitely a tool which will help. Let me introduce you to The Sharp Plays Index (click here and can also be found in TheSharpPlays.com website menu).

The Sharp Plays Index is a pretty simple tool which looks at all the betting activity from public rated accounts and all the betting activity from sharp rated accounts…by individual sport and across the whole market…and assesses the performance.

When a market sees a lot of public strength and sharp weakness, it will tend to dip down to 0.8 to 1.1 for a low. When a market sees a lot of sharp strength and public weakness, it tends to run up to 2.9 to 3.5 on the TSP Index. So, how can we use this?

If you look at the TSP Index through the link above, you will see soccer is running the hottest. Should be no shock if you have paid attention to the soccer intel. However, we should be aware that because this is usually the high-end (2.9 to 3.5) of how hot sharps get that a turn could be coming in soccer. So, I will keep betting soccer, but I will be cautious that if soccer starts to turn. I won’t assume we remain in a printing money atmosphere for soccer because we could be due for regression…given how high it is on the Index. Conversely, I see NBA got as low as 0.5 and has been trending up. I am expecting some public regression given how hot the public has been (13-2-1 ATS on favorites…although not every favorite was a public play, but 90% were). So, perhaps this upward momentum in NBA is a sign that some progression is coming for sharp money…and maybe for the dogs too.

What about the sports markets overall? Are they too hot and nearing a possible turn/regression or are they a little chilly and about to warm up? Take a look at the “TSP-I” line on the chart. The TSP-I line takes into account all the sports you see on the chart AND every other sport/event that the book accepts wagers on and it assesses the overall sharp to public performance. I have also recently added a 5 day moving average, “TSP-I 5-SMA” to help show where the momentum is. When the TSP-I is above the moving average, it means sharps are on a little run. When the TSP-I is below the moving average line, it means the public is picking up steam and sharps are struggling.

Like any technical analysis tool used for the financial markets, The Sharp Plays Index is back looking and not forward predicting. However, by knowing where we have been and the current trajectory and location on the table, we can get a better idea of where we are headed…compared to just flipping a coin or guessing. If it’s been a hot run in something or overall, check the chart to see if we are at 2.0…meaning there is more room to keep running before we get into the danger zone of being too hot (2.9 to 3.5)…and should be cautious of a turn coming.

So, I don’t make any money out of pointing you to The Sharp Plays Index and it is a free tool that anyone visiting TheSharpPlays.com can access. So, I am not promoting the TSP Index here for some self-serving purpose or so you see ads on that page (I don’t accept advertising). I am letting you know about this tool simply because it is overlooked or not known by so many bettors. Be sure to bookmark the page. The link for the Index can also be found anytime on the TSP Live Dashboard Quick Links menu. The TSP Live Dashboard is accessible through the front page and website menu at TSP.Live…or the direct link at https://tsp.live/tsp-live-alerts/.

Like anything, the TSP Index is not some Holy Grail that will guarantee success. However, if you are having trouble checking the temperature of a current market or overall, be sure to stop by TheSharpPlays.com and check out the TSP Index to see how things are trending and where they stand!

Part II (originally published on 6/12/23 as a TSP Live Insider article)

The premise of what I covered in Part I was using the TSP Index in conjunction with the moving average to find turns in the market…when to be aggressive and when to be passive in your betting. If you are unfamiliar with the TSP Index, you can visit it by clicking here.

This past week we had a crossover of the TSP Index and the TSP Index’s 5 day moving average. What the hell does that mean? When the “TSP-I” line is above the “TSP-I 5-SMA”, it is a signal that the market is trending to the sharp money and against the public. When the “TSP-I” line is below the “TSP-I 5-SMA” line it signifies that the public is outperforming and sharp money is underperforming.

Of course, nothing is some voodoo magic where as soon as the TSP-I line moves above the moving average that the content will be 75-0 on angles reported each day and when below the line the angles will be 0-75. It’s just that, as followers of the Index since 2019 know, it can definitely tell you where you are in the sharp and public cycle. The past week, as covered in the DCR, the TSP-I line moved above the 5 day moving average. When it did, the content has outperformed each day since that time. It’s effectively been a positive grind. I’ll keep rolling until that one day comes and the “TSP-I” dips below the “TSP-I 5-SMA”. The dip below the 5 day moving average will be the canary in the coal mine that I should watch my betting because there is a change in the momentum.

Regardless of what people may think, sharp money grinds profits, not through consistent printing of money, but through periods of progression (winning runs) and regression (losing runs). The catch is that the progression runs are usually just a little longer and a little stronger than the regression runs…and that’s where the profit is made.

Conversely, regardless of what people think of the public, the public also goes through periods of progression runs (winning runs) and regression runs (losing runs). The catch for the public bettor is the regression runs are usually a little longer and stronger (especially stronger because the public presses and chases when losing…something sharp bettors avoid) than the progression runs.

There you go, those two paragraphs are 100% the two sides of the betting markets. The sharps win a little more than they lose…but they still lose…and badly sometimes. The public loses a little more than they win…but they still win…sometimes going on incredibly white hot runs as we see from time to time. As such, whether a public bettor or a sharp bettor, it’s all about riding the waves. The goal of the TSP Index is to be alerted to a change in the tide, help identify the waves, and identify who is riding the at any given time. I give you, The Sharp Plays Index!

I could write a thesis about the TSP Index. It is one of my favorite tools and I use it on a daily basis. The previous article which I provided a link to above will help to bring you up to speed. The main purpose of today’s update was simply to note that the “TSP-I” line is above the “TSP-I 5-SMA” line which means I am planning to bet normal as the sharp bettors are in control right now. When the TSP I moves below the TSP-I 5-SMA…I am still open to betting but I will get VERY PASSIVE and cautious with my betting. If you read the article I linked above, you will also see how you can know when the public or the sharp money is getting too hot or cold and a trend change is likely. Then you can use the moving average crossover (discussed here) to add confirmation that the turn has arrived. Nothing is perfect, but for those who religiously use the TSP Index on a daily basis, it is a tool they never want to see go away. It takes two seconds to check it out each day…it’s worth the time.

That’ll do it for me today. I hope you have a wonderful day and good luck in your action!

The below originally appeared as a TSP Live Insider article on June 27th…

I hear it all the time…”sharps don’t bet lines that high”…”or sharps would never bet a -300.” Both of these statements are completely false. There is no such thing as a line being too high that sharp money would not bet if it were a value.

Today’s early sharp buying actually provides an example of this. In CONCACAF Gold Cup, Canada opened as a -500 chalk and was pushed right up to -800 by sharp money. Surely, if I reported this as a sharp buy, and not as part of this article, people would have sent me those “no way sharp money bets -500.” Can I ask you why not?!?!

Usually the answer becomes something along the line of “sharp money will never win enough to cover losing -500 juice.” Therein lies the tell…this person is just spouting bullshit and has no idea what they are talking about. You see, if something should be -800 as the fair value, and the book is offering you -500 on that wager…that’s a value! If you know something has an 88.89% chance of happening (a -800 price), but the book is pricing it as having only an 83.33% chance of happening (a -500 price), assuming your price/valuation is correct…you WILL NEVER LOSE MONEY over the long haul betting those situations. It is mathematically impossible to lose money given those parameters.

With that in mind…a no lose mathematical guarantee…why won’t sharps bet the -500?!?!? You might then say, but how do you know the sharp money is pricing it correctly?!?! Well, if they are rated as sharp by the book then they have a track record of success betting values…and thereby we could assume there is a decent chance they are pricing this match correctly.

The most famous example of this is the Mayweather/McGregor boxing match. The public was going nuts for McGregor…taking him at every turn and it kept the line in the area of -500 to -550. However, anyone who realized this wasn’t going to be a close match, likely priced Mayweather in the area of -1500 to -2500…thereby the -500 is a TREMENDOUS value. If you are constantly betting -500 prices that should be -2500….yeah you will take a big loss when you drop a -500 bet…but that’s likely just giving back a portion of PROFITS betting on these situations.

So, don’t think for a second there is a line at any level that sharp money will not bet if that line is considered a value by the sharp bettor.

That’ll do it for me today. I hope you have a wonderful day and good luck in your action!

Every football season there are always new people to the content, and many are unsure the best way to follow. So, I thought I would share one strategy that many veteran TSP Live users go with. It’s simple, it tends to provide only 2-3 selections each game day and it has had a very strong performance year over year…and dating back to The Sharp Plays content coming to Twitter in 2011. No, it is not blind following the KB Consensus…although that is a proven option over the last three years since the analytic launched. However, following KB Consensus is something everyone can easily figure out. What I am talking about is something that might not come to mind right away…following the individual selections I use for parlays or rollovers.

Of course, if you are betting my rollover or parlays then you are following those selections. What I mean is using the wagers in those exotics to place straight bets. Yes, when I have a three leg parlay, there are many TSP Live subscribers who bet the three leg parlay straight, sometimes betting a round robin with those same plays (would have worked well yesterday) and then betting each of the legs as straight bets. Now obviously that can be a lot of action if you are betting 1 unit on all those wagers, so each bettor needs to assess comfort and their financial situation which is a whole other topic. I am just talking about how to narrow down the angles you wager on when the content is overwhelming or in busy wagering days…or if you just don’t have time to handicap for yourself on a particular day.

Why does this strategy of using the parlay/rollover legs as individual wagers work? When I am moving forward with a rollover or parlay, whether Twitter, Telegram or in TSP Live, I am typically selecting what I see as the best content at that moment…in my opinion and assessment/handicapping for that day. I want to hit a three team parlay, so I am going to pick the three best wagers I see on the board to make up that parlay. It’s not too much to then assume that the individual wagers in my parlays or rollovers will perform great as straight bets. I mean if parlays are profitable for over +330 units the past 12 years…then probably those legs within the parlays would be nicely profitable as well. Look at yesterday…my parlay lost, but betting the legs went 2-1. On Saturday, my parlay went 0-2-1. Overall it was a 2-3-1 weekend for betting the legs of the parlays I put out. So no, it is definitely not a perfect strategy, but it has its benefits in filtering the content. Just betting the parlay legs took you from over 40 angles in TSP Live this weekend down to 6. Yes, the KB Consensus worked better, but there’s a reason long-time subscribers religiously follow the wagers in my parlays…over time they are a solid grind and when the parlays cash it is a nice bonus on top.

It is important to see how I am wagering on the parlays as well. Am I just betting candy money, at which time I am likely taking shots and not overly confident in the wager, or is the wager(s) part of a rollover where I am firing 0.3, 0.5 or 1+ unit?

My goal with TSP Live and The Sharp Plays content is to get people to think and then wager. I think paying and blind following a handicapper or service is an awful idea. You do not learn anything and as most of you have seen, blind following most handicappers out there never works. If it did, you would be reading someone else’s newsletter today and not mine. So, I still feel that with any content you should review and assess based on all the information in front of you. However, despite my opinion on how best to use the content, some people just want to blind follow. If that’s you, then my public and subscriber parlays and rollovers are a great source for wagers…if you don’t have time to think that day.

That’ll do it for me today. I hope you have a wonderful day and good luck in your action!

Parlay strategy could honestly be a thesis, but it would get very boring with math and stats. So, I will touch on a couple quick items on parlays. First, you won’t hear a lot of sharp bettors use parlays. They will cite the “sucker bet” nature of the bet and that is true….if you are a sucker and hitting less than 52.38% of your spread bets…then parlays will be a good way for you to dump a lot of money. However, if you hit better than 52.38%…you can turn parlays into a weapon against the book! For a deeper dive, I would refer you to a previous article on parlays, one of a few that I have on TheSharpPlays.com… CLICK HERE or for the direct link… https://thesharpplays.com/parlays-arent-just-for-suckers-anymore/

When I talk about parlays in this article, I am referring to my 1 unit parlays, not candy or pizza money parlays which tend to be about taking shots. My 1 unit parlays are strategic for me. So, with that in mind, let’s dive in.

First, my parlay design is simple, I just look at what I feel are the top 2,3,4,5 angles out there and put them into a parlay. No special mathematics or assessment beyond sorting out the content into what I like best…then tying those angles together. If they are indeed high percentage angles then I am optimizing my edge against the book based on expected long-term win percentages.

Do I use Round Robin parlays? Yes! If you don’t know what a Round Robin parlay is, give it a Google. Many times, like the parlay on Saturday, my parlays go down by 1 leg. Using a Round Robin (for example to turn a 4-leg parlay into FOUR 3-leg parlays) on Saturday’s parlay action would have cashed for a profit…and I would have another one riding the Giants tonight for more profits!

So, if I have a 1 unit 4-leg parlay, what should you bet on the FOUR round robin parlays that would be generated? I would want to keep this around 1-1.5 units…so thereby 0.25 to 0.40 units of risk per round robin would be the max.

What happens if the first leg of a 1 unit parlay goes down? Will I re-bet the other legs in a new parlay? Obviously I do not have a hard and fast rule for every situation, but I am open to re-betting the parlay. I did this on Saturday when South Alabama looked awful early on and the other legs were still to come. When South Alabama looked like trash, I just put in a new parlay with the remaining legs and did it for 1 unit. I am glad I did because it won…BUT…there is a risk…your losses can add up if the subsequent legs in the parlay also go down.

What about keying a selection? Keying a selection means to have a play you like and do multiple parlays or wagers tied to that play. Yes, I will often key a game I like in multiple exotics. Yesterday was a great example. I had the Buffalo Bills -2.5 as a 1 unit straight bet for the My Handicapping game in this week’s newsletter, I also had Buffalo in a 1 unit parlay I bet in the TSP Live content AND a 1 unit parlay I had from the previous day (me replay of the S Alabama parlay when S Alabama was sucking)…plus I had the Twitter rollover active on Buffalo -150! So, that’s 3.2 units of bankroll risk tied to the Bills. I am comfortable with that, and would not have cried if the Bills lost, but like everything, you have to assess whether you would be comfortable dropping 3.2 units if the Bills went down…killing the straight bet and the parlays. Again, there are those reading this who think a 4,5,6,7+ unit loss is something that should NEVER occur in professional gambling. You my friend are highly uneducated on gambling realities…no offense…just trying to help!

Parlays are not for everyone because they require TREMENDOUS PATIENCE! There are days I lose 2-3 units on parlays alone. I have people who shit themselves when they lose 2-3 units in a week. So, my parlay style might not work for these individuals. Being a parlay bettor requires you to understand one key thing…

PARLAYS WILL LOSE A LOT. There are occasions when I am down 10-15 units on parlays in my personal betting and then I connect on a longshot 20-1 parlay and nail a 6-1 parlay as well…next thing I know I went from -15 units to +11 units. Everyone can handle the +26 unit day…few can weather the -15 unit run in the process. So, if you want to bet parlays, losing a lot is something you have to accept…gotta weather the storms because parlay wins and losses, like everything in gambling, come in runs!

Also, the new domestic books that have come online since sports betting became accepted nationally will offer a lot of parlay boosts. If you are an advantage bettor, who is disciplined, using these boosts only expand your edge against the house on parlays…take these boosts when offered. I am not talking about the boosts that involve premade parlays the sportsbook is offering. Those premade parlays the book wants you to bet are a joke. I mean the boosts where you can create any parlay and the book is giving you 10,20,30% bonuses on the payout for those parlays. It is a great way to expand the edge and ROI for a successful parlay bettor…even if the limits for the boost are low ($50 or $100)…it’s still worth taking advantage!

That’ll do it for me today. I hope you have a wonderful day and good luck in your action!