Category: TSP Live Education

On the morning of March 14 (2024), I released a wager in TSP Live on Xavier/UConn UNDER 149.5 for the TSP Live Portfolio. Shortly after the release, a counter buy hit on the OVER 149 and above. Counter buys tend to be strong angles to bet…betting with the late money when it hits…in this case taking the OVER 149.

Counter buys are when sharps hit one side and then other sharp money hits the opposite side of the wager later on. It’s similar to a head fake except that head fakes tend to have small sharp volume and then are followed by a massive move across the market later when limits are high. Counter buys don’t see such aggressive opposite buying. So, a sharp head fake would be they bet $1000 on UNDER and then $10,000 on OVER when limits go up. Counter buy will see $1000 on UNDER and then $2000 on OVER…so it’s a disparity, but not as large as a head fake.

Given this new information, I had some concerns about my initial UNDER 149.5 bet. As a bettor faced with this information, what can you do?!?!

The following is what I discussed on Telegram in terms of strategy to handle the counter buy…

A counter buy killed the Algorithm Selection (Oklahoma/TCU UNDER 144) the previous day (March 13th). On March 13th, I discussed using in-play as an option if you wanted to buyout or play the middle on the game. Unfortunately, the in-play target never hit…although there were a few occasions in-play where you could have bought out of the UNDER 144 for an in-play bet on OVER 144 and just lost vig.

In the Xavier/UConn example on March 14th, the in-play target based on where the counter buy hit would have been to bet OVER 140.5 (more on this math later).

Shortly after the game got underway, the in-play total dipped to 145.5. So, you could get a very tight 4 point middle…but it’s still a middle. It’s not the target, but it’s an option for panicky bettors. What is a middle? The wager is a “middle” because the pregame wager was UNDER 149.5 and the in-play would be to take OVER 145.5. So, there is a chance the final score could fall “in the middle”. For me, I was ride or die on the initial wager, and not looking to buy out, but that’s me and everyone is different so I wanted to provide this discussion.

Since a lot of rookie bettors will shit their pants when there is a counter buy on the other side of a wager they took…especially if they went in HARD…it is good to know options to eject from a bet. In-play and 2nd Half wagering is a great way to eject…if the setup and price is right! Sometimes (like you will soon see) you can with BOTH the original and the “eject” bet!

The game went to halftime with a point total of 67 points. When the halftime markets opened, the 2nd Half total was 80. If you bet the OVER 80, you would win the original bet (UNDER 149.5) and push the 2H bet on a final point total of 147. You would win both bets (original UNDER and 2nd Half OVER) on a final point total of 148 and 149…and you would lose the pregame bet, but win the 2nd Half bet if 83 points or more were scored. It’s a pretty tight middle and hopefully nobody went in hard on a 0.1 unit wager…but if you did or you are sweating profusely for some reason at the prospect of being opposite a counter buy then you could potentially get out for some vig…with the chance of winning both bets…by taking OVER 80 for the 2nd Half.

Why not just bet a counter buy pregame?!? The one problem with betting counter buys pregame is the books tend to move aggressively on counter buys. So, the problem is often the line when the counter buy hits immediately moves and the price you can now get is no longer in the sweet spot for playing the counter buy.

So, when I report any counter buys, you could avoid betting the counter buy wager pregame and just see what comes up in-play. Don’t chase bad numbers, especially for material wagers.

Often if a game is slow for the first minute or two, a total closing OVER 150 could drop to OV148 in the first 60 to 90 seconds…perhaps hitting the price (or better) where the counter buy took place. Let’s pretend the counter buy hit at 149 like it did with the Xavier/UConn game. The early slow start gives you OVER 148 immediately which is better than the pregame price…and the price where the counter buy took place. You are now riding a counter buy for a price that was never available when the counter buy hit the market pregame. For me personally, I prefer to take the optimal target. The optimal target this season on totals has been use the worst price sharp money hit (OVER 150 and drop it 9 points plus get a hook if one is not included). So, in this case I would want 150 – 9 = 141…but I want a hook in my favor so I will settle for 140.5.

With about 8 minutes left in the UConn game, the in-play target on the counter buy was achieved at OV140.5.

At this point I posted the following on Telegram…I ride the initial wager, but let’s see how it ends and hopefully all this can be a helpful lesson and a strategy you keep in your arsenal for future situations where you might want to use it.

Well, the ending could not have been any better! With 2:34 to go, the game was a blowout and it looked like the in-play target would not hit (129 points). UConn and Xavier would likely put in scrubs, burn clock, take silly shots, and that would be it…not much more scoring…and we needed 12 points for that in-play target to cash…although the pregame UNDER looked solid. Well, the final two minutes saw things heat up and ALMOST kill the pregame UNDER 149.5 after looking like it wouldn’t even hit the in-play OVER of 140.5.

In the end…UConn 87 – Xavier 60 for 147 points! WOW!!!! Sweaty…and a pretty middle!

How did all of the above wagers I discussed above shake out?!?

If you took the OV80 for the 2nd Half…PUSH.

If you took the in-play OVER target based on the counter buy of 140.5…WIN!

The initial was on UNDER 149.5 was a WINNER as well!

Taking the OVER 148 immediately in-play as a way to buy out of the wager did not win. Further showing that while you would have successfully bought out of your pregame wager, you didn’t leave yourself much of a middle to win both wagers. It would have had to fall perfectly on 149 to hit both. So, looking to play the target is the optimal way for a chance to win both bets…BUT…if you need to get the hell out of a bet…the 148 would have done the job just fine and left you a tight middle in the process.

So, how about that?!?! You could have cashed an OVER and an UNDER on the same game using some effort to monitor prices thanks to information in TSP Live about where sharps were betting both sides of the total. Knowing where sharps were betting allowed you to then create optimal in-play target prices.

Don’t discount the value and power of using The Sharp Plays information not just pregame but in-play! In-play bettors can often be the most successful bettors using TSP content because of all the versatility that in-play offers.

Thanks for giving this a read and good luck this March Madness and every day you are in action!

March Madness has brought in a variety of new followers to The Sharp Plays and subscribers to TSP Live…and with it…a lot of the old questions are popping up. Should I bet all the sharp buys? Should I only wager on the Algorithm Selections? Are the TSP Live or GFAW Portfolios for me?

Let’s dive in…

My goal at The Sharp Plays is to provide you intel throughout the day…reporting sharp and group buying, value detected by algorithms, specific know bettors, intel from traders at the book, and a lot more. Many new subscribers come into TSP Live after having subscribed to handicappers or services where the entirety of the content provided is… “5 units on Minnesota -1, 3 units on Texas -5, 2 units on Alabama +6. Good luck!“

The Sharp Plays (“TSP”) is very different. TSP provides you information from inside two global sportsbooks as a way to educate you on action behind the scenes that you otherwise would not have access. Sure, if you bet every single thing labeled as sharp or a group buy, regardless of size, you will likely end the year with a profit. However, there will be A LOT of wild swings throughout the year…swings which most gamblers could not handle. It would not be unusual for you to be +40 units at one point in the year by betting EVERYTHING, and then down -60 units at another point, to finish at +50 units by the end of the year. Hence why I emphasize that blind following everything IS NOT the optimal way to use the content. It may win, but few gamblers have the fortitude to ride it for the long-term, which is essential to see reap the dividends from the strategy.

The are three types of content delivered throughout The Sharp Plays (free and paid content)…

1. Content which is logged and/or graded: The logged and graded content comprises 20% of all the content…both subscription based and free. Graded content includes things like Group Buys, Book Positions, Algorithm Selections, TSP Live Radar angles, KB Consensus, Book Needs, specific “known” bettor action (like the NBA bettor I tracked the last two seasons) and more. How will you know if some content is logged and/or graded…
   
   • I will state that something is being “logged and/or graded” right next to the content…“Large Group Buy on Alabama +6 (logged and recorded as a Group Buy)”.
     
   • Content highlighted in green boxes in TSP Live alerts are there to let you know something is logged and graded. Anything in a box with green background will be logged and graded…and how it will be logged and graded will be very apparent in the text within the green box.
     
   • The content carries a unit rating (i.e. TSP Live and GFAW Portfolios). Anything like “0.1 units on Ole Miss -7” or “1.1 units on Alabama -18” is something that will be logged and recorded because it has a unit rating.
     
   • The content carries a record with its release. Perfect example is the Go Fast and Win Score Prediction analytic where the current record and performance is right in the table itself.
     
2. Portfolios: The content in both the TSP Live Degenerate Portfolio and the Go Fast and Win Portfolio is within the 20% of logged and graded content, but it’s purposes is to provide more than just the intel value gained through angles like Algorithm Selections or TSP Live Radar. Portfolios DO NOT operate like a standard bankroll. In a standard bankroll you have 100 units and you fire 1 unit bets each day/week to grow that bankroll. The fact you have 100 units in the reserve in a standard bankroll allows you to be aggressive right out of the gate if you want. With the Portfolios, they start each year at +0.0 units, assume very limited bankroll, and are trying to use small highly leveraged wagers (i.e. parlays and rollovers) to build a bankroll of house money before getting aggressive. It takes time and a lot of patience. The goal of the strategy is to teach a variety of wagering lessons to gamblers. First, the portfolios provide almost daily action, are perfect so far in ending the year with a profit, and novice bettors can use the exact unit risk I have listed as they learn the long-term nature of sports betting success combined with unique daily strategies to achieve it.
   
   Last year the TSP Live Degenerate Portfolio started at +0.0 units on January 1st, 2023 and closed at +12.24 units on December 31st, 2023 using an average bet of just 0.20 units. However, it was not an immediate road to profits. The TSP Live Portfolio was -1.49 units through June 24th, 2023…despite ending at +12.24 units by the end of the year. Veteran bettors using a 5X multiple (rookie and intermediate bettors are advised not to use a multiple) turned a profit of +61.2 units solely using the TSP Live Degenerate Portfolio…and that return does not include any other content performance!
   
   The Portfolios sound great…and they are…plus they provide easy to follow wagering action…HOWEVER, using the Portfolios is a test of patience given the wagering style. Those who did not give up on the TSP Live Portfolio last year, even when it was -1.49 units deep into June, were handsomely rewarded by the end of the year! The Go Fast and Win Portfolio is working on house money right now…hence it’s ability to fire regular 0.22 unit straight bets, sometimes multiple times in a day…versus being more parlay and rollover centric like the TSP Live Portfolio.
   
3. Everything Else: By far the largest content category is “Everything Else”. Over 80% of the information put out at The Sharp Plays is not logged nor graded and the content is simply put out as intel to assist with handicapping. Things like the early sharp buys on Telegram, sharp reports on Twitter or Telegram throughout the day, general commentary and analysis, etc. If it doesn’t have a unit rating, is not labeled as being “logged and/or graded, nor does it have a record of performance with its release…then it is “Everything Else”. The issue for some followers is they treat the “Everything Else” just like the Portfolio content or the logged and graded content. Again, it will likely win at the end of the year, but there will be a lot of 0-10 runs and 10-0 runs along the way. We all handle the 10-0 runs, people shit themselves on the 0-10 runs. Blind following the “Everything Else” content is for only the most advanced and veteran gamblers…I don’t even do it myself. I will use the “Everything Else” information in my handicapping, often as a filter for plays I like, but that is the extent of it.

I do not believe any bit of content put out is a “blind follow”…regardless of how good the record might be. If you are just looking to blindly follow someone and hope to be a long-term profitable gambler…that’s likely not going to work. Eventually that person stops doing what they are doing or retires and you are left with no source of information AND no strategy of your own to be able to wager effectively by yourself or with new data.

What’s the best way to use the content? It varies by bettor. Some people HATE parlays and rollovers…so they don’t really mess with the portfolio action. Instead they just play the “logged and/or graded” content. It’s usually only 1-2 wagers a day and it has a profitable performance…simply. Other bettors like to bet both the TSP Live and Go Fast and Win Portfolio action, PLUS the Algorithm Selections, AND they handicap games on their own using sharp buy and other information provided through The Sharp Plays content. Some bettors subscribe to TSP Live and other information providers and compare content between all the information they get to derive selections. Other bettors use the information within their handicapping to come up with their own plays. There is no right or wrong answer, it’s just a bettor’s preference. Not sure what your preference is? Start slow. Pick one thing to follow like the Algorithm Selections which are the main source of graded NCAAB content and then expand from there. Maybe it is football season, just follow the KB Consensus and that’s it until you get a feel for things. As you become versed on the content as a whole, you will see how easy it is to develop a strategy for using it.

If you are new to The Sharp Plays or TSP Live subscriber content, visit the TSP Live Dashboard (link is “Sports Dashboard” in the website menu) and take some time to visit the links on the Dashboard to familiarize yourself with what’s out there. I know I type a lot, but read the TSP Live alerts IN FULL when they are issued. After a bit you will get a feel for what you can skim and what you should read slowly. Feel free to drop me a message(s) with questions. I can’t tell you how many times I get a message basically saying “I have no idea what the hell to do!” At which point I walk someone through the content in a concise manner and those brief exchanges usually end with the subscriber having a fresh view on how to use the content. How can you reach out to me? You can send a message through Telegram (t.me/TheSharpPlays), email (click here to send a message), or DM me on Twitter/X (although I get so slammed with messages on Twitter it is best to message on Telegram and/or email).

Thanks for following and for your support! Always here to answer any questions! The Madness of March is just beginning!

Good luck!

The first chart shows your chances of cashing the parlay size listed based on your straight bet win percentage. “SB Win %” stands for “Straight Bet Win Percentage”. So, if you hit 50% of your straight bets, you have a 25% chance of cashing a two leg parlay.

The second chart below shows the breakeven price you would need on your parlay based on the chance of winning the parlay as laid out in the first table. So, when your parlay is providing a payout ABOVE what is shown, you have value. In the second chart, “300” = +300 payout = 3/1 odds. So, since a two leg parlay of -110 prices yields a +265 payout at your book, by hitting 52.5% of your straight bets your fair value chances of hitting that 2 leg parlay is +262…but the book is paying you +265. So, you have value and an edge on two leg parlays.

In the case of a three leg parlay, with -110 prices, you are paid +595 by the book. So, if you hit 52.5% on your selections, you are in value since your fair value chances of hitting that three leg parlay (given your 52.5% win percentage) is +590…but the book pays you +595!

Your parlay value/edge over the house increases as your straight bet win percentage increases.

Good luck!

Parlay Size	SB Win % = 50%	SB Win % = 52.5%	SB Win % = 55%	SB Win % = 57.5%	SB Win % = 60%	SB Win % = 62.5%	SB Win % = 65%
2	25%	27.6%	30.2%	33.1	36	39.1	42.2
3	12.5%	14.5%	16.6%	19	21.6	24.4	27.5
4	6.2%	7.6%	9.2%	10.9	13	15.3	17.9
5	3.1%	4%	5%	6.3	7.8	9.5	11.6
6	1.6%	2.1%	2.8%	3.6	4.7	6	7.5
7	0.08%	1.1%	1.5%	2.1	2.8	3.7	4.9
Parlay Size	SB Win % = 50%	SB Win % = 52.5%	SB Win % = 55%	SB Win % = 57.5%	SB Win % = 60%	SB Win % = 62.5%	SB Win % = 65%
2	300	262	231	202	178	156	137
3	700	590	502	426	363	310	264
4	1513	1216	987	817	669	554	459
5	3126	2400	1900	1487	1182	953	762
6	6150	4662	3471	2678	2028	1567	1233
7	12400	8991	6567	4662	3471	2603	1941

I posted a page which includes an in-depth breakdown of the performance of the Go Fast and Win and TSP Live Degenerate Portfolios. Not only do I breakdown the ROI’s overall and for the current year, but I also list the total wagers and break the action down by category (straight bet, teaser, rollover and parlay).

If you have no idea what I am talking about, you can visit TheSharpPlays.com/portfolio-performance/ to view. The link is available under the “Records & Logs” page which can be located in TheSharpPlays.com website menu and is posted throughout TSP content.

I am always told by the masses that parlays are a sucker bet. Well, as of February 28th (2024), parlays in both portfolios have a combined ROI of +11.7% on 301 parlay wagers. Not quite the sucker bet they are made out to be…at least for the way I put them together at The Sharp Plays.

However, as people reviewed the performance and saw the success of parlays, it brought up a question…could that success be amplified through the use of Round Robin parlays? A “round robin” is simply breaking up a single larger parlay into multiple smaller leg parlays. So, you might put together a parlay that has four wagers in it. However, maybe for whatever reason you are concerned by betting a four leg parlay. You don’t want to watch a pretty 3-1 day mean no money. So, you decide to bet a round robin to break up those four bets into smaller parlays.

When you have four parlay legs, you can create the following round robin combinations…

SIX 2 leg parlays…in a 3-1 day you would net +4.8 units (assuming 1 unit on each parlay for round number illustration)…in a 2-2 day you would lose 2.4 units.

OR

FOUR 3 leg parlays…in a 3-1 day you would net +3 units (assuming 1 unit on each parlay for round number illustration)…in a 2-2 day your would lose 4 units.

A 4-0 day would result in your six 2 leg parlays bringing in +16.2 units of profit and your four 3 leg parlays bringing in +24 units of profit.

Then there are round robin combos where you can do…

Six 2 leg parlays and the four 3 leg parlays for a total of TEN active parlays.

Maybe the 2 leg parlays aren’t of interest, you could instead do the four 3 leg parlays and one 4 leg parlay for a total of FIVE active parlays.

You could even do the six 2 leg parlays, four 3 leg parlays and one 4 leg parlay for ELEVEN active parlays.

As you can see, there are A LOT of possible combos of parlays in a round robin. The sole reason to bet a round robin is to avoid those occasions when you lose a juicy parlay on one bet…TSP followers definitely know that feeling.

IMPORTANT: DO NOT WAGER ON THESE STUPID SECOND CHANCE PARLAYS (or whatever a sportsbook might call them). THESE ARE THE PARLAYS WHERE YOU STILL GET PAID IF YOU LOSE ONE LEG…OR SOMETIMES TWO LEGS ON LARGE PARLAYS. THE ODDS OFFERED BY BOOKS ON THESE BETS ARE AWFUL. YOUR EVERY DAY ROUND ROBIN IS THE BETTER OPTION IF YOU WANT TO GET PAID ON LOSING ONE LEG OF YOUR PARLAY!

Is there an edge to using round robins?

The short answer would be that it depends on the content you are using. So, for most people the answer would be no. For most people who win less than 52.4% of their bets…which is 96% of the public…parlays are a sucker bet and so round robin parlays would also be a sucker bet. When it comes to TSP content the answer would be YES, there would be an edge. If parlays in both the TSP Live and Go Fast and Win portfolios are profitable, then round robins would be profitable as well.

Round robins are good for the impatient bettor. Parlays require a lot of patience. You will lose far more parlays than you win, but when you do win, the payout covers the losses and provides a nice profit on top (as can be seen by the very high ROI on parlays for the portfolios). The problem is many bettors like to cash tickets regardless of ROI. There are thousands of casual bettors that like betting -200 chalks because they will typically cash a good amount of tickets. It’s just that they will lose more than they win regardless of the fact they are cashing a lot of tickets.

There are occasions where I go 0-10 in a run on parlays…or worse…and then cash two parlays in a row and am not only back to even, but in the green. Very few bettors have that kind of patience. So, if that describes you…perhaps look into round robins as an option to play TSP parlay content.

So, you like the idea, but how much should someone bet on their round robin?

Obviously, like anything with money and risk, this will vary dramatically by person. What I typically suggest is to try and keep your risk on the round robin to the ballpark of what you would risk on a single parlay with those same legs.

So, if today you were going to bet 1 unit on a four leg parlay, but then got cold feet and decided you wanted to do FOUR 3 leg parlays instead with those teams…I would advise betting 0.25 units or 0.30 units per parlay. Thereby your risk is 1 to 1.2 units and right in line with what you were going to risk on the one parlay.

If you were going to risk 1 unit on a four leg parlay, I would not suggest betting four 3 leg parlays at 1 unit each for a total risk of 4 units. It’s just too much risk.

Just think of a round robin as a way to not only break up your large parlay into smaller parlays, but to also spread your risk on that one large parlay across those smaller parlays.

OK, thanks TSP…I got it…bet round robins and never lose!!!

Obviously, this is a joke, but my usual closing reminder to everyone. Betting for an income is not easy in any way. Every one of us loves the idea of the perceived carefree and leisurely lifestyle of a professional bettor…and don’t get me wrong, there are a lot of carefree occasions in this business. Great flexibility, sitting by the beach and watching your action, you make your schedule, travel, finer things in life…basically money and freedom. Just look at the most public version of this with Billy Walters. Who doesn’t like that sort of thing?!?! However…there’s a dark side too. Not every day is great. It’s the one business where you could put in hours and hours over the course of the week and not only not make money…BUT LOSE IT…despite that effort. It’s just that a professional knows that while they might put in 300 hours of effort in a month and get nothing that month…they will get paid for that time in the end…through the grind and over the long-term.

There is no magic trick or wager that will provide you zero pain in betting. If there was, I would have found it a long time ago as I have been educated along the way by some of the sharpest bettors and groups to ever exist and whom you will never hear about in your life…and who put Billy Walters (great guy and the most known prolific bettor) to shame in terms of profits, betting volume and success!

So, round robins are not the Holy Grail of sports betting or parlay success. Round robins are just another tool for your wagering arsenal. A weapon that can be used when it is chilly in the markets and you want to use the low risk, high return of parlays…but don’t want to have to get a 3-0, 4-0 or 5-0 sweep to turn a profit. For some, they just don’t like parlays so instead of taking a 3 leg parlay, they prefer three 2 leg parlays and thereby the round robin is perfect. Whatever the reason…there are plenty of uses for round robins and the biggest reason to do one is your feel on a set of wagers. Sometimes the best guide is your gut…listen to it from time to time.

Good luck!

Once the Super Bowl is over, I schedule website updates…along with doing some clerical work like archiving records from previous years or content that it no longer in use.

Today, the following rows have been removed and archived from the “Sports Content Records” link at TheSharpPlays.com (click “Records & Logs” in the website menu).

The “Retired Angles” column was archived a few months ago when discussed on Telegram…no need to continue to keep them on the table.

Overall, the angles being archived achieved a net profit of +71.2 units.

More updates to follow in the day’s ahead, but this is the first.

Content	Location	Notes	W	L	Win Pct	Units	ROI
Pro’s v Joe’s	All Platforms	N/A	8	7	53.3%	0.6	4.0%
Teasers all 1 unit	TSP Live	2023	6	6	50.0%	-0.6	-5.0%
Teasers all 1 unit	TSP Live	2022	14	13	51.9%	-0.5	-1.9%
Teasers all 1 unit	TSP Live	2021	15	8	65.2%	6.2	27.0%
Parlays 0.5 units of risk or more	All Platforms	2023	1	21	4.5%	-11.5	-52.3%
Parlays 0.5 units of risk or more	All Platforms	2022	9	43	17.3%	5.2	10.0%
Parlays 0.5 units of risk or more	All Platforms	2021	27	69	28.1%	32.9	34.3%
In-Play (Rated)	TSP Live	INPLAY & Hermes	44	51	46.3%	14.8	15.6%
In-Play (Rated)	Twitter/Telegram	INPLAY & Hermes	17	13	56.7%	6.6	22.0%
Late Information Selection	TSP Live	MLB	10	3	76.9%	7.5	57.7%
Late Information Selection	TSP Live	NCAAB	37	31	54.4%	2.9	4.3%
Late Information Selection	TSP Live	Soccer	1	1	50.0%	0.0	0.0%
Legal Pad Algorithm Selection	TSP Live	Soccer	12	9	57.1%	4.6	21.9%
Retired Angles	All Platforms	N/A	146	137	51.6%	2.5	0.9%
					Net Profit	71.2 units

Good afternoon!

Another football season comes to an end! When I look back on this past season, I see a lot of frustrating times…how many juicy parlays died on the last leg…on Sunday or Monday Night Football?!? Fucking Cowboys! How many bad beats or bad finishes did we get to wagers?!? How many times when we needed to win a key game to bail us out…the bet went down in flames?!? How many times did sharp money fade the same team over and over…and keep losing over and over on the fade?!? Plenty of losing days and weeks in the mix! Oh and this season was the first one in the last five where we didn’t cash BOTH the Prop Lock of the Year AND the Super Bowl spread winner. As I said this morning…that’s gambling…it isn’t all roses and it is not an easy way to make a buck (despite what many want to believe).

HOWEVER…

As you will see in the content recap below…while not everything had a winning record, the overall performance was pretty spectacular. When we start a new season in SIX months (YES…the football countdown has begun!!!), people look back on previous seasons and see the winning performance and records and think the next season ahead will just be an easy stroll from August through February with consistent 56% winners (day in and day out…week in and week out) and no pain, stress, agony or frustration along the way. I mean, look at the records below…sure looks like it was pretty easy…but it wasn’t! THERE WILL BE PAIN!!!!

In the mix of content that hits 56% over 355 selections…wow…that’s pretty nice…are several 0-5, 0-8, 0-10 runs that aren’t evident by just looking at the overall record. The 56% record misses that one weekend when you were pressing and chasing, with the KB Consensus 1-1 on the week and one KB Consensus bet to go…so you hammered that last KBC for a bailout…and it lost! It doesn’t consider that you passed on the TSP Live Radar for any wagering on a Saturday when it went 8-0…but you put 750 units on a Group Buy on Sunday…and it lost. The 56% record doesn’t consider that you finally subscribed to TSP Live in November when content proceeded to hit 40%…and then gave up after that one losing month and missed December…when the content hit 72% (yep that’s a 56% average). Now that’s how professional gambling really works…high short term volatility, but with long-term positive performance.

On a Monday morning in October, when the content had a 2-10 weekend…nobody wants to listen to me tell them to hang in there, and that by the Super Bowl the TSP content will finish with an impressive 56% winning record! In that moment, off the 2-10 weekend, the gambler is in the abyss…the content sucks…TSP sucks…TSP Live is a waste of money…they will never get a winning run…you can’t win at gambling…the universe hates them…etc.

The above sort of thing happens every season…often multiple times…and the people who should read this message will not. If I could show gamblers the future in those dark moments, off the 2-10 weekend, perhaps they would avoid pressing, chasing, and jumping from hot trend/handicapper to hot trend/handicapper…and instead just ride the ups and downs with a consistent plan to profit over the long-term…patient that the wins will come, even if they aren’t there right in the moment.

I emphasize the above because it’s lost on 96% of gamblers…and coincidentally 96% of gamblers lose money year over year. If you don’t want to accept gambling reality…I will politely pass on having you as a subscriber. I appreciate your support…and when you give up on the paid content because your patience is that of a meth addict who ran out of meth…I hope the free content delivers for you or that you find your Holy Grail of sports betting elsewhere. One that never loses and always wins every bet you need to win! May God Bless you on your journey…because you are going to need Him!

Gambling is not easy…and it takes work and consistency. If you experience a losing month, and then quit, only to then miss a winning month, and then come back to the content…you likely won’t have good results. We can’t time when wins and losses will happen. We can use tools like the TSP Index to help us manage our risk, but the best strategy in sports betting and in the financial markets is BUY and HOLD for the long term. If you have a good system and good content…the profits will always be there in the end…but not every day throughout.

For those of you who understand the above…thank you! I hope to bring the rest along with us, but if they don’t want to come…that’s OK too! Each and every year the subscriber base to TSP Live gets larger and larger. Until things stop growing…I will assume it is a sign that what I am doing resonates and the content works, because more and more of you keep coming back month after month…year after year! Especially when 90% of subscriptions each month are from returning buyers! Thanks to each of you I am able to expand the content and technology…and that has only made the performance that much better as the years have passed!

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Now for the main event! Below is all the sharp reporting, analytics table, algorithm, and unit rated wager content from this past season…

Not included in the below records, but for reference, the preseason Football Futures Report had FIVE championship tickets between NFL and NCAAF…cashing TWO with Michigan +800 and Kansas City +650.

TSP Live Analytics Tables…
Radar 151-118 (56% and a +7.2% ROI)
KB Consensus 15-6 (71% and a +64.9% ROI)
Book Needs: High 1-0 (100% and a +91% ROI), Medium 7-11 (39% and a -25.6% ROI)

Book Positions 3-1 (75% and a +36.4% ROI)

Group Buys 4-5 (44% and a -15.2% ROI)

Sharp Props 6-4 (60.0% and a +20.9% ROI)

1st Quarter Algorithm 12-11-5 (52.2% and a -4.4% ROI)

Degenerate Portfolio (+6.08 units and a +10.3% ROI)…with an average bet of 0.20 units

Go Fast and Win Portfolio (+4.84 units and a +16.1% ROI)…with an average bet of 0.18 units

Add up all the records (non-Portfolios) and it is 199-156 for 56.1% winners and an ROI of +7.0% (6.977% to be exact)

I didn’t want to include the portfolio performance in the above since the portfolios use the above content to derive 99% of their wagers. So…the Degenerate Portfolio and the Go Fast and Win Portfolio combined for +10.92 units, off an average wager of only 0.19 units, and a combined ROI of +12.2% (12.232% to be exact)!

The take away from the above is while the content is a strong positive performer, when you use your brain and combine different tools, including AND ESPECIALLY bankroll management to place wagers…you can amplify that performance!

All sharp reporting, analytics and algorithm content had an ROI of +7.0%…excellent! However, Portfolio content performed 74.3% better with an ROI of +12.2% using the same content!

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Well, my friends I have come to the end of my lecture today. Thanks again for spending some time with me this football season! If you are just here for football content, I hope you have a great off-season and can’t wait to see you back in August! If you are someone who bets everything…I’ll see you in the trenches tonight…back at the grind!

Good luck!

I posted the records (see below) this past week regarding the performance of the TSP Live analytics tables for the 2023-24 football season. At the time of this writing, we have three more games to go (AFC Championship, NFC Championship, Super Bowl). Once those games conclude I will update this article to reflect the performance of the analytics in the records below. There are three analytics tables active in TSP Live for the football season each year, along with a myriad of other intel (key sharp bettors, Book Positions, Group Buys, general sharp buying and much, much more). The analytics tables provide the bulk of the content each week during the football season, so here is how they performed…

KB Consensus 15-6 (71%)

Radar Readings (Overall 151-118 for 56%)
74-79:  8-5 (62%)
65-73:   82-71 (54%)
60-64:  54-40 (57%)
51-59: 7-2 (78%)

High Book Needs 1-0 (100%)
Medium Book Needs 7-10 (41%)

As you can see, it all looks great…especially when you consider all these results were based on the CLOSING LINE or in the case of KB Consensus, the price when the alert went out!! Price shopping would only increase the above performance. So, the TSP Live Radar hit 56% on 269 selections, the KB Consensus hit 71% and the only loser was Book Needs which went 8-10 during the season…hardly even a small ding to the overall performance.

So, looking back it appears it was an easy season to win some money…and that’s also the catch! Looking back when the football season has concluded provides a winning picture year after year here at The Sharp Plays. What you don’t see in the records above are the day to day and week to week stresses that came with this and every football (or any sport’s) season. Sure, 56% winners on the TSP Live Radar looks great, but not every week hit 56% or better. Some weeks hit 90%…other weeks hit 10%. Therein lies what I hope every gambler can see and appreciate as you venture forward in your gambling journey…

GAMBLING IS NOT EASY! Looking at the records at the end of the season leaves out the ups and downs…the bad beats and bad breaks…the frustrations and annoyances you experienced along the way. It leaves out the shitty weekends when KB Consensus went 0-2 and you began to feel KB Consensus was going to go on an 0-10 run as your betting depression grew exponentially. It leaves out the Monday when our hopes and dreams of a big parlay coming through rested on Dallas…and they lost. It leaves out the Saturday’s when we were 0-3 on bets right out of the gate…leaving us the rest of the weekend just to try and get even. Every one of those moments and countless others were all part of the great looking records above. Going through those moments will wear on your physically and emotionally. All of those experiences can lead you to emotional extremes and that can cause you to press, chase and inevitably blow up your bankroll. I am sorry to tell the haters, but if you lost money during the football season with TSP Live then it was likely due to bankroll management or inconsistency in wagering/strategy…not the content.

I can’t tell you how many people bitched and moaned at various points throughout the football season when the content wasn’t just winning every angle. There were plenty of people who gave up after a losing week or a losing run. In the end, those people will forever lose at gambling. Chasing the hot run and not expecting to experience losses at gambling is not a long-term success strategy. Just give it a try. Even when you hit 56% over 269 angles this football season…even when KB Consensus hit 71% for a 15-6 record…you still had to endure 6 losses. I know, it sounds silly…a “whopping 6 losses”…LOL! However, far too many gamblers would have given up on KB Consensus after an 0-2 or 0-3 run. SON OF A BITCH!! I BET A KB CONSENSUS PLAY AND IT LOST…FUCK THIS…FUCK TSP…FUCK GAMBLING. Sounds comical…but you would lose count of the number of people who approach gambling that way.

Instead, if you approached losing with the attitude of…”I lost, that is part of gambling, I need to remain patient and keep grinding…it’s a long season and some seasons see the profit made in the last week…you just never know. What I do know is by the end of the ________(fill in any sport)___________ season there is a great chance I will be sitting on a nice profit from my wagering. So, I just need to weather this storm, stay consistent with my strategy, bankroll management and attitude, and at the end I will look back on a nice income generating venture that had plenty of fun along the way as well. Losing sucks, but it is unavoidable…so let me make sure to keep tight and wait for the sun to come out again….BECAUSE IT ALWAYS DOES! Now let me start looking at the card for tomorrow…………”

The above person will be a successful long-term gambler because they aren’t sweating the individual games, the day to day or week to week ups and downs. They know the game to game, day to day, week to week are just TINY parts of their long-term gambling for any sports season they undertake. The above person doesn’t like losing, but they are rolling with the punches, not pressing and chasing and instead moving on to the next day’s action to get right back into the fight. Understanding a through process like the above decreases the emotions you experience because of gambling and decreasing the emotions are ESSENTIAL to success. There’s a reason I don’t watch 95% of the games I bet…it removes the rollercoaster of emotions a gambler will experience in just a single game…let alone a series of games…which gets amplified during a cold run where losses keep smacking you into the face.

Yes, we get into this business for the fun…for the big wins, big weeks and big months! There were plenty of those this past season…but those weeks and months are easy to handle. I mean November lost and that was after two winning months of football in September and October…yet losing in November was the end of the world to some…and people gave up just because of 2-3 losing weeks in the only losing month this past season. Then guess what happened?!?! While the quitters were buying the “85%+ winners” hype of some handicapper, those who stayed in TSP Live printed money throughout December…a perfect time for a big winning run…and a nice Christmas bonus! December completely erased November’s loss and added a massive profit on top! If you didn’t have the patience…you missed the great run and runs like December are why we get involved in this business!

My goal with this whole discussion above is simply to say, 56%+ is phenomenal for professional gambling. Yet there were people who quit, who blew up their bankroll this past season, who cursed the content. It doesn’t get any better my friends. There will be ups and downs in gambling…there will be winning weeks and months and losing weeks and months. Don’t judge your gambling success based on individual bets, single weeks or even months. Assess gambling over the long-term and treat gambling like a marathon…not a sprint.

Thanks for checking out the article! As football season winds down, just a reminder that the content changes after football can be found at https://tsp.live/2024/01/06/tsp-live-psa-annual-content-changes-after-football/.

Good luck!

One of the hardest things for me to get people to understand when it comes to gambling is…no matter how good you are…there are going to be periods of losses. You are going to have cold streaks and periods when you can’t pick the quinella in a two horse race. If you want to avoid losing, the strategy is simple…don’t gamble. However, if you are reading this today then the probability of you not gambling is likely the same as you never experiencing a losing month of gambling…ZERO.

So, since you can’t avoid losses, the optimal strategy is to minimize those losses during the inevitable cold runs. The TSP Index is a tool I use to see whether the sharps or the public have the momentum in the betting markets. It is a tool I use daily in TSP Live and can be found at TheSharpPlays.com (https://thesharpplays.com/the-sharp-plays-index/). I will save the deep details on the Index from this article. If you want some background, you can visit the link above in this paragraph and another article on the Index here in the TSP Education section (https://tsp.live/2023/11/22/tsp-live-education-utilizing-the-sharp-plays-index/).

The purpose of this article isn’t really to discuss the how the Index works, but rather to show a real life example of its performance recently and how it played into optimizing my wagering within the TSP Live Degenerate Portfolio (subscriber content) and the free Go Fast and Win Portfolio.

On December 28th, the TSP Index got to a reading of 3.3. The higher the positive number (maximum of 5) the hotter the sharp run. Usually, it is in the 3.3 to 3.5 area when a hot run for sharp money is coming to an end and regression is on the horizon. When this level was reached (3.3) on December 28th (2023), and in the days leading in as we crossed the “3.0” threshold, I made sure to mention it to TSP Live subscribers so they were aware of the potential storm clouds ahead. Well, lo and behold, on December 28th, after hitting 3.3 in the Index, the content lost…and then a cold period of 11 days followed. During the 11 day cold period from December 28th through January 7th, the Degenerate Portfolio lost 1.14 units. The hot run in December leading into the cold period saw the Degenerate Portfolio gain +6.52 units. Another good example of maximizing wins and minimizing losses.

On January 8th, the Degenerate Portfolio continued playing tight because of the on-going downtrend in the Index. Thankfully things turned on January 8th and I cashed a parlay and a straight bet on Washington/Michigan UN56.5. In that one day (January 8th) I picked up +0.45 units for the Degenerate Portfolio…and the Go Fast and Win Portfolio also cashed for +0.20 units. Not just because of those wagers, but due to sharp and public performances as a whole in the betting markets on January 8th, the Index then finally turned up when it was updated on the morning (8am ET) of January 9th, 2024…signaling at least a pause in the downtrend…if not an end to the downtrend and a new turn in favor of sharp money.

So, over 11 days the Degenerate Portfolio lost 1.14 units…and then in one day the Degenerate Portfolio got back a chunk of those losses. It didn’t stop there. On the evening of January 9th, the second day that this new uptrend in the Index was in play, the TSP content (free and paid) had a 6-0 performance! Coincidence? Longtime followers of the TSP Index would say no. The Score Prediction analytic for GoFastAndWin.com (free) went 3-0, including a +210 DRAW in Italian soccer…and the Degenerate Portfolio in TSP Live also went 3-0 on completely separate wagers! The result provided another +0.40 units to the Degenerate Portfolio and +0.52 units to the Go Fast and Win Portfolio.

Once again…11 days of a downtrend in the Index and a cool run for the content that resulted in -1.14 units in losses for the Degenerate Portfolio. Then over a two day span the Degenerate Portfolio collected +0.85 units of profit! Maximize wins…minimize losses…and USE THE INDEX TO KNOW THE CURRENT BETTING ENVIRONMENT YOU ARE WAGERING INTO FOR THAT DAY!

The pop in the TSP Index the past two days doesn’t mean the Index won’t resume a downtrend today, but it illustrates how through proper management, discipline and good wager strategy (low risk parlays with low risk straight bets to cover parlay action) that you can minimize losses in cold runs and be there to get running when things turn. How do we know of these runs…visually through the TSP Index! The TSP Index is a free tool available at TheSharpPlays.com (https://thesharpplays.com/the-sharp-plays-index/) and it takes all of a minute to review on a daily basis.

Subscribers in TSP Live get an expanded view of the TSP Index. The subscriber exclusive TSP Index table shows the sharp activity levels (average, above average, below average) on a daily basis broken down by league/sport and it also includes an assessment of which side of the market is trending…along with any special alerts or information gained through the TSP Index.

People tend to get all pissed off by losing streaks…which is silly because there is no avoiding them. Sure, I wish when you bought a TSP Live subscription, whether one week or one month, that you NEVER had a losing day, week or month…but that’s not possible. However, by riding the ups and downs you can come out ahead in the end. By playing tight when it was cold over those 11 days, the Degenerate Portfolio kept losses to only 1.14 units. At the same time, despite the cold streak, I continued having daily action in the Degenerate Portfolio in an effort to be ready for when the turn came…minimized risk, minimized losses. On January 8th the potential turn came and we got back almost half our losses (+0.45 units) that occurred over the previous 11 days…and then got another +0.40 units on January 9th!

Gambling isn’t easy, but it doesn’t have to be impossible. You can bet on a daily basis and be very successful IF you educate yourself on the betting environment and have a strategy and plan. TSP Live aims to teach bettors strategies and techniques that I have honed over almost 30 years in gambling and over 20 years as a professional gambler. You won’t win every day…but that’s OK because this business is a marathon and not a sprint!

Good luck!

Good afternoon,

Each year as football content transitions to non-football content, there are changes within TSP Live. The goal of the changes is to allow TSP Live to adapt to the unique betting strategies for non-football sports compared to football content.

During football, information and content for the weekend can arise on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, etc. for events that don’t take place until Saturday or Sunday. So, the TSP Legal Pad is important for football, but loses its value outside football. Similarly, during football we have the TSP Live Radar and the KB Consensus…both of which are analytics tables that are effective due to the unique structure and setup of football betting markets. So, as is the case every year after the Super Bowl, those two tables (Radar & KBC) go into hibernation until August. The TSP Survivor table, which was new this year, will also go away because 99% of survivor pools are football regular season only.

One of the key things for non-football sports versus football is that the lines move a lot faster. The reason is due to the far lower betting volumes that non-football sports see on a daily basis…versus a Sunday NFL game…or even a Saturday MAC football game. So, speed becomes essential to success. We saw this twice this past week where I updated all the tables and then the Legal Pad alert went out (only 5-10 minutes at best)…prices moved 1-2 points. So, having a faster means of content delivery during the non-football part of the year is essential.

Here’s what will change for TSP Live on the Monday after the Super Bowl…

1. The TSP Survivor table will be removed this Monday (January 8th) at the conclusion of the regular season. Most survivor pools will be done.
   
2. The TSP Live Radar and KB Consensus table will be removed from the TSP Live system on the Monday after the Super Bowl and will return again in August as is usual.
   
3. The TSP Legal Pad will also be removed from the TSP Live system on the Monday after the Super Bowl.
   
4. The Book Needs table was something that I was going to have run all year round, but it really isn’t worth the time. So, don’t panic yet…let me finish this section…the Book Needs table will go away on the Monday after the Super Bowl and will return in August. Any Book Needs of Medium or High Level will be reported DIRECTLY in the Telegram channel for FREE. Why? Book Needs have been relatively flat content and maintaining the table requires a decent chunk of time each day for very little return. The Sharp Plays content is in a constant state of evolution and survival of the fittest. With time being limited each day, underperforming subscriber content is quickly removed or downgraded to free public content to make time and space to be spent on new content or content that is performing. For example, Book Needs started the football season as follows…
   
   Book Needs Readings of 90+: +11.7 units
   Book Needs Readings of 80-89: +22.4 units
   Book Needs Readings of 70-79: +21.0 units
   
   Here’s what they currently look like…
   
   Book Needs Readings of 90+: +11.7 units
   Book Needs Readings of 80-89: +23.4 units. (+1 unit)
   Book Needs Readings of 70-79: +17.0 units (-4 units)
   
   So, Book Needs content takes about 15-20 minutes of time to manage each day, which means around 2000-2300 minutes this football season was spent managing the Book Needs table instead of using that on something else and the net return was -3 units!
   
   It is not the first time Book Needs have underperformed. The Book Needs were flat last football season too. So, moving forward and until next August (or perhaps indefinitely) any Book Needs will be discussed and reported on Telegram…with high and medium Book Needs continuing to be tracked and logged to maintain a performance metric on the angle. The Book Needs table will be retired the Monday after the Super Bowl and return (possibly) in August….any medium or high Book Need will be reported on Telegram for free.
   
5. The TSP Live tables not already named above (i.e. Algorithm Selections, Degenerate Portfolio, TSP Index Analysis) will continue to operate as normal after the Super Bowl.
   
6. The morning content/briefing of action that would be posted to the TSP Legal Pad during the football season will now be published as a daily TSP Live Memo. The TSP Live Memo will go out every morning between 7am and 12pm ET. The TSP Live Memo will include the same content as the Legal Pad, but will can be issued faster via alert versus Legal Pad page update. The goal of the Legal Pad is providing football notes on games for the weekend on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, etc. and allowing you a centralized place to visit on Friday or during the weekend to see all the updates and information that was reported as the week went along. With non-football content being same day (i.e. I am not reporting intel on a Saturday NCAAB on the Monday leading in because prices aren’t even close to being out) there is no need for a Legal Pad format. The change from Legal Pad to morning TSP Live Memo alert will begin on the Monday after the Super Bowl.
   
7. The free Go Fast and Win Score Prediction table and the Go Fast and Win Portfolio will continue to operate as normal at the conclusion of football…but the Book Needs table will no longer appear on the Portfolio page.

I am posting this to the education section of TSP Live because I can reference again as the football season comes to a close and as new members arrive.

Good luck and thank you for your support!

As we approach the end of the NFL season, we begin to hear about the “must win” situations for teams to get into the playoffs along with many player incentives that come into play in the final week.

Let’s first discuss the “must win” situations. The problem for gamblers is that they tend to have this approach to “must win” situations as though the book is unaware that these exist and has not already worked the “must win” angle fully (and perhaps even more) into the current prices (spreads and moneylines) for those “must win” teams. Is the book going to provide value on a “must win” team when they know the public will be falling all over themselves to bet it? No, the book will likely have a price that is negative, or at best neutral value on the “must win” team. If the public is going to blind bet these teams, the book says, “let’s screw the public as much as possible on price”, and they do. So why do gamblers think betting these “must win” teams are akin to a “Lock of the Year”? I don’t know, but it has been happening for decades…each and every year…and the casual gambler never learns. What the definition of insanity again?!?! LOL!

Remember though, if fading “must win” situations won 70, 80, 90, 100% of the time…the book would adjust accordingly. Gamblers tend to be all or nothing people. If you tell the casual gambler that you really don’t want to bet on the “must win” team because they are almost ALWAYS a negative or neutral value, the casual gambler then translates that to “betting the must win team will lose 100% of the time and thereby fading the must win team will win 100% of the time”, or some other outrageously high percentage. When the angle doesn’t hit at that rate they immediately think the fade angle is bullshit, that the must win team was a value, and they give up on the fade…at which point the books smile like the Grinch on Christmas Eve!

Fading must win teams is usually where the value lies, but you aren’t going to hit 80% blind fading the must-win teams. However, over time the “must win” fade will grind a profit. The profit can be amplified by finding the key must win teams to fade. At which point you could achieve a consistent 54-57% win percentage with such a strategy.

Casual gamblers don’t think 54-57% of the time is a good win percentage. Believe it or not, the 54-57% win percentage provides you a +3 to +9% (rounded) edge against the house. That means for every $1 you wager, you can expect to return $0.03 to $0.09 cents of profit. Doesn’t sound like a lot but that change on every dollar adds up…ask any casino! Edge in craps is only 1.36% (Don’t Pass…lowest house edge in craps), which means the casino makes $0.0136 on every dollar you bet, but that means millions over time!

Anyway, enough with the math, the point is, be careful unloading on the “must win” teams because “must win” doesn’t mean “will cover”…or even “will win”.

When I am looking to a fade a “must win” team, I like to let the public run the “must win” team’s price up for me, and then I will look to fade that “must win” team. In filtering these situations I also like to look for a “must win” team that is going up against a motivated opponent. A perfect example this week is Tennessee. I do not consider this some “Lock of the Year” but just a bet I like because I think Tennessee will be motivated to play at home and Jacksonville is in a “must-win” situation. The public pushed this up from 3.5 to 5.5 and I love the 5.5 or even the 5. We’ll see how it goes, but I know for a fact there is no value chasing Jacksonville at -5.5 and likely, since the book already knew the Jags were a must win team when they set the Jags -3.5 opening price…that the Jags at -3.5 isn’t a value either!

Regarding the player props, someone passed along a few links (thank you for that) and assuming the data within in correct there are several players that are within range of achieving stats this week which will provide them some bonuses. It sounds great…I have a motivated player looking to have a big payday so they and the team will do everything to get them that payday. However, once again if some idiot on Instagram or Twitter has this information, you can be sure the books do as well and worked it into the prices. So, the prices for the following players may see those players cash the OVERs and get their incentives…or the teams may avoid those players to save a couple bucks. So…nothing is a lock betting either way. However, most casual gamblers go in expected all these players to get all their incentives and they bet that way. Just because a player wants to get a bonus does not mean the team wants to pay it out…and thereby the team could game plan around or simply cut the player out to avoid it. We see this all the time when teams sit players on the verge of getting a bonus. So, it is tough to say that a player needing an OVER on some stats metric will automatically get it. With that said, here were the most talked about players and what they need for their incentives.

Very few books have prices up for these yet, but just some things to look at and then something I will followup addendum below. For now here are the most talked about player incentives…

DeAndre Hopkins (TEN) needs 49 yards for a $1M bonus and 7 catches for a $250K bonus.

Chris Jones (KC) needs 0.5 sacks for a $1.25M bonus.

Dalton Schultz (HOU) needs 4 catches for a $250K bonus and if he gets 6 catches he gets another $250K (total $500K).

Austin Ekeler (LAC) needs 110 total (Rush & Rec) yards for $100K bonus.

Lavonte David (TB) needs 0.5 sacks for a $150K bonus.

Bet Smart…good luck!

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Article Addendum published January 11, 2024

Here’s how the player incentives finished…

Hopkins completed a pass…and got 7 catches for his $250K bonus, but unfortunately the team could not give him the big one for his 49 yard bonus of $1M. Instead Hopkins got 46 yards. Anyone betting the OVER on yards would have lost.

Christ Jones did get a sack.

Dalton Schultz got 5 catches for the first $250K bonus, but did not get the 6 catches for another $250K bonus…missed by just one grab!

Ekeler got only 49 total yards and missed his $100K bonus.

Lavonte David did not get a sack.

So, Twitter/X and Instagram were all abuzz last week about these “lock” player props because the players wanted to get incentives. In the end, out of the 7 possible bonuses…three were achieved…Hopkins got 7 catches, Jones got half a sack, and Schultz got 5 catches. A 3-4 record…not exactly a good angle as was the gist of this article going into the weekend. The vig made that 3-4 even worse.

Throw in the fact that the books were well aware of all incentives and jacked up the player props just enough to make them good negative values…knowing the public would still bet them…and bet them they did. The players didn’t get their incentives, the bettors did not get a bonus either…but the books had a nice payday on these!

Just because a team “must win” does not mean they will…but it usually means fading the “must win” team will get you point spread value as the public hammers the “must win” team because “must win” always equals “will win” (sarcasm). The theory in the previous sentence was my reason for taking the Titans +5 over “must win” Jacksonville. In the end the Titans were an outright winner!

At the same time, people bet the player props as though players needing incentives would clean up and collect all those incentives. In the end, it was the players that got nailed as incentives cashed at a 43% rate. To cash a prop with the average juice of -115 (a littler higher this week), you need to win 53.5% win percentage.

Thanks for giving this article a read!