bookmark_borderSaratoga Handicapping #2 – July 18th, Race #5

As I told someone yesterday…”Hopefully the combination of articles [I am doing this month] will help put together a picture but yes, handicapping horses is an art and something people do for the love of it. If you don’t have that passion for it…it’s not worth the time because it will never work!

With the success of the Triple Crown wagers at The Sharp Plays there was a natural inclination by bettors of “I want to learn how to do this too.” As though I could give you 3-5 pointers, send you on your way and you would actually have a chance…more than rolling a dice…at picking value horses that perform. Teaching someone to handicap baseball is rather straight forward…look at a team’s recent performance in their record, their overall record on the season, check for key injuries, review the starting pitcher matchup and the stats for each pitcher and you can put together a rudimentary wager assessment. Horse racing is not so clean. Unlike MLB teams who play each other over and over during the course of the season, horses often come into a race from different tracks, racing against different horses, some are coming off a layoff, others were racing at higher class levels, and on and on the list goes. So, there is no standardization in a horse race like there would be when comparing teams in NBA or MLB for wager assessment.

The better handicapping comparison in horse racing would be imagine trying to handicap a baseball game, except the game involved a team from the South Korean KBO playing against a AAA baseball team in the US. There’s no standardization because these are different leagues, between teams who never play each other, and there is no basis for assessing past performance of a KBO team playing a AAA team. So, think of how deep you would have to dive into the stats to handicap the game. You would need to see average pitching speed and styles in KBO versus AAA to see if there is any edge. You would then need to assess how the hitters on each team handle the average pitching style and speed of the other league. You would need to assess who is traveling where for the game. It would be a far deeper handicap than handicapping an MLB game where things are standard because it is one MLB team versus another. That’s why the form has so much information packed into those little sections for each horse on the racing from. It is trying to give you a full view of the horse and various stats/data points so you can compare horses in your handicapping given each horse is coming in off a different previous race, experience, sometimes races have horses of different ages, then there’s those arrivals from different tracks and/or having raced in different classes of race. often. Everything I just laid out is only a sliver of all the moving parts to horse race handicapping. The way to put these horses on a level playing field to assess them in the upcoming race then becomes looking at how the trainers and jockeys do at the current track. When was the last time the horse raced? Is the horse moving up or down in class or distance? How did the horse run in its last race? All these little things play into how prepared a horse will be for the competition it faces today.

Andy Beyer is the creator of the first tool which really revolutionized horse racing. He created the Beyer Speed Rating which was found in the Daily Racing Form. The speed rating was an attempt to standardize the horses and show how fast they are in a single number. In the past this was done using distance and time only and computed in different ways by the handicapper him/herself. Beyer incorporated more factors into his speed rating. You also see speed ratings in the Brisnet.com racing forms that I am posting for these articles.

Speed ratings allow you to get an idea of a horse’s speed in their previous races based on a calculation Beyer devised. By creating a means of standardizing speed between horses we could now use these speed ratings for past races to compare horses in the current race. So, Horse #1 might have speed ratings of 85-86-71-83 in his last four races. Gives me an idea that this horse has an average speed around 81. Horses in the Kentucky Derby might run with speed ratings of 98-105 or more. Horses in an average race at a top tier track like Saratoga will average 80-90. In a stakes race at Saratoga it might be 95-100+. If you have a race and one horse (“Horse A”) has speed ratings of 85, 82, 81, 84, 83 in its last 5 races, and other horse (“Horse B”) has speed ratings of 82, 80, 79, 80, 78…you would clearly say the bet would be Horse A because his speed is on average better than Horse B. However, what if Horse B just had a solid workout in the past 10 days and Horse A is coming off a ten month layoff? Changes the picture A LOT. Horse A had good speed…but is now ten months older and this is its first race off a layoff. Horse B has been racing recently and shows good form due to a solid recent workout…I might look to Horse B.

Anyway, you can see how this speed rating helps us dial down a horse into how fast they run, but there are other factors to consider beyond just speed. Think of it like a car. If you went from point at to point B at 95 MPH, your speed rating might be “95”. If I ran the same distance, my speed rating is likely a “10” because I can’t run anywhere near 95 MPH. So, now you know nothing else but you know that if we were going to race and people knew nothing other than you have a speed rating of 95 and I have a speed rating of 10…who is everyone going to bet? Sure, you bet the 95 because it’s a race and a 95 speed rating is far faster than my 10. However, what if I said the race was going to be in a foot of mud and you are driving a Ferrari…now what do you bet? Sure, the car is faster…but will it have traction and be able to move in the mud. The mud will likely slow me down too…but I might be better suited for mud racing than you…and that’s another factor of assessing horses…some don’t perform on wet/muddy tracks and some perform exceptionally on such tracks. How do you know? All that mud and sloppy versus fast and good track performance is listed right on the racing form. Long story short…summarizing speed into a single figure is very helpful, but it’s not the only thing. Now you have to assess the type of race, its conditions, etc. to get a full assessment on the horses and the race.

Why isn’t speed everything if it is a race? Some horses are being put in a race for a tuneup…whereby the trainer just wants the horse to get some competition but isn’t racing to win. Some horses are coming off a layoff…so their speed ratings from 3,6,9 months ago don’t really mean anything today. So, the Beyer speed ratings were a huge help, but like the TSP Power Ratings…you need to further assess the horses beyond speed.

The TSP Power Ratings use speed, but they also use pace, pedigree of the horse, class rating of the horse, track performance, jockey performance, trainer performance, and more to give me a rating of the horse. Once again, like Beyer, these TSP Power Ratings have proven to be highly effective in handicapping the races, but when combined with fundamental handicapping (checking recent workouts, assessing potential jockey/trainer intent for the race, looking at the prices in the pools when the race is approaching) the TSP Power Ratings are second to none and a great filter.

The key is learning how to read a racing form. It would be far too long for me to type and explain the ins and outs. So, I will defer to you doing some Google searches if you have an interest. However, there is a relatively simply read and breakdown by Brisnet that could really get you up to speed. So…

Here is a link on BRISNET.com for how to read the “Ultimate Past Performance” sheets… https://www.brisnet.com/content/brisnet-online-horse-racing-data-handicapping/read-brisnet-com-ultimate-past-performances/

It is long and will take time, but print out today’s race form (link below) and then visit that link at Brisnet above and you can follow along and really get yourself up to speed. Here’s today’s form for the race I am covering…

Here’s the Racing Form for Race #5 (CLICK HERE)

Here is what the TSP Power Ratings say for this race: 3-7-5-8/6-4/1-2

Since the ratings were run, the following horses were scratched from the race: #4

Now let’s dive in…

From yesterday’s article you hopefully now know where to find the notes for each horse in the racing form. The notes provide a simple handicap of each horse based on key factors. Today I will dive a little deeper into the stats/information provided in the form for each horse.

I am going with Race #5 for this example. The race is 7 furlongs and would be considered a sprint. A “route” is a race that is 1 mile or longer. We can see by the top section on Page 1 of the racing form that the race is a $50,000 claimer with a purse of $80,000.

First, let’s filter out some horses based on the notes. I am going to filter out the following horses for the reasons cited…

#1) Poor speed figures, beaten by weaker horses in its last race.
#2) Coming off a 6 month layoff and no official workouts at Saratoga. How can you tell about the workouts? See the bottom of the section for Horse #2? There are two rows of numbers with the top row starting “11 Jly Bel tr.t 4f ft”. These are recent workouts and I would like to see “Sar” as the last workout. Instead I see “Bel” which is Belmont. So, I have a horse coming off a layoff without any prep workouts at Saratoga…I’ll pass.

With the above two removed, I am left with 3,5,6,7,8 because the 4 is scratched.

#3) The horse got 2nd in its last race and lost by 1.5 lengths. You can see this on the race breakdown where it says “28June24Lrl”. Again, deciphering this sort of stuff takes a little time, it’s all about whether this is interesting enough for you to learn. What that text tells me is on June 28th, 2024 at Laurel Park, the horse ran a 6 furlong race in 1:11^3. In that race it opened up in 2nd by a head, then held 2nd by a head, in the stretch it got into first by a head and then at the finish it had fallen back to 2nd by 1.5 lengths. Going all the way to the right side of the form I can see that the horse (based on the comments)” had a long battle inside, led the race, and finished “gme” or “gamely”. Gamely is defined by Equibase as “A horse that narrowly misses victory. He has either dueled for command from the outset and gave way grudgingly in the late stages, or set all the pace and just missed.”

You can visit https://www.equibase.com/products/cc-comments.cfm for a breakdown of what the various comments mean.

We can also see in the top right hand corner of #3’s section on the form that in 2024 it has had 5 starts, 0 first place finishes, 3 second place finishes and zero third place finishes (top right hand corner “2024 5 0- 3- 0” below the “Life” which is lifetime performance).

So, not a bad horse, fought had in its last race but tired late. Could be an issue today as it is moving up from 6 furlongs in the last race to 7 furlongs in this race. Definitely a horse to note thought as it has gotten 2nd in each of its last three races.

#5) The horse has not raced in 47 days, but it does have a good workout on July 13th…the problem is that workout is not at “Sar” but at “TP”. Similar to stock ticker symbols, you eventually learn all these different codes from memory and knowing the various major tracks in the US and Canada. I know “TP” as Turfway Park which is a synthetic track. You can google what that means. Here is a link of track name abbreviations that are commonly used: https://www.equineline.com/dirreffr.cfm?topic=rfnatrck%2Ehtm.

I would much prefer to see a workout at Saratoga to show the#5 horse is primed for this track despite the layoff. The horse got 4th in its last race back on June 1st, but that was a $100K stakes race…so it was against tough competition. The [S] before each race type on the form means the track was “synthetic” versus dirt. Horses do race differently on synthetic so that’s a concern here because again, we have nothing to go on for how this horse will handle the Saratoga dirt.

So, a good horse given the stakes race, but can it handle dirt? Last time it raced on dirt was September of 2023 when it got 5th. Every other race was on a synthetic track which can be noted by the “[S]” you see before each race type in the form.

#6) Skipping to the comments section shows this horse had an “Awkward Break” out of the gate in the last race and was “off slw” or off slowly out of the gate. So, clearly had some issues in its last race at the start that likely doomed it. So, we can throw that out. The race before the last one the horse was bumped in the break out of the gate, but then appeared to catch a nice run in a 7 furlong race which saw it win by 2.25 lengths. Potential here because we have a drop in class, hopefully it gets out of the gate better, and it had a competitive speed rating in its win at 7 furlongs.

After that race at Saratoga on June 8th, the horse then had a workout at Saratoga on July 3rd where it ran a decent 48^1 over 4 furlongs. Not bad. Learning what makes for a good workout time based on the different tracks simply takes experience of seeing the various numbers over and over again. In general, for a 4 furlong workout I would like to see the horse below 48^5…if it is under 48…then I am really interested. I do have to stress though…what makes a good time at one track might not be a good time at another track. These variations are usually less than a second, but that does mean something.

#7) Failed as a favorite in its last race and was out more than 2 months. However, the horse got a good recent workout…but not at Saratoga…this was at Belmont. The trainer is winning 29% of his races with horses in their first race off claiming them. The horse’s best speed is better than any of the other horses in this race. Clearly a good looking horse and likely why it is the favorite.

Going back to the #6 horse…it got that 48^1 on Saratoga’s track and there is no note about a “Sharp 4F workout” like we see for the notes of the #7…yet the #7 had a workout at Belmont over 4F in 48^4! That’s what I was talking about in the differences between tracks when it comes to workouts. The 48^4 on Belmont’s track is considered “sharp” but the 48^1 on Saratoga over the same distance and ride style (“B” for “breeze”…which means the horse was just running at a moderate speed and effort…the other style is “H” for “handled” which usually means the horse was put under the whip and run hard).

Here is a link to notes for deciphering Workouts: https://www.equibase.com/newfan/workouts.cfm.

#8) Horse was beaten by weaker horses in its last race, but it does have a tie rating for the highest speed in its last race. It’s best dirt speed is also better than the average winning speed rating for horses who have raced in the past in this type of race at this track and distance. The concern I have is if you go to the horse’s previous races, you can see it was trained by Norman Cash and is now trained by Eduardo Caramon…by the way, you might wonder how I am finding all this stuff. I am not really getting into the little things, but all of the stuff I am discussing can be found within the horse’s section of stats on the form. So, if you don’t know how I found out that Eduardo Caramon is the current trainer nor can you see how I knew the previous trainer or how I also know that Eduardo Caramon has had 3 horses start with 0 wins, 1 second place and 0 third place finished for his horses)…simply search the section on the form for the #8 horse until you see the word “Caramon” and then see if you can piece it together. Then try to find “Norman Cash” listed somewhere in that same section and the picture should begin to focus a little. Much of learning horse racing is getting familiar with the racing form. A lot that seems complicated can be easily broken down by spending a little time navigating the form and running some searches…or viewing the pages I linked above to the various horse racing websites and the link showing how Brisnet breaks down the Ultimate Past Performances for you.

Anyway, the #8 is not a bad horse, but some concerns given the trainer move. Is the horse really ready one race with a new trainer to blow by everyone else? Maybe…but its lower probability. The race could just be a test with little interest in winning for the trainer to gauge where this horse should be.

==========

So, with all the above said, I have filtered the horses I like down to 3,5,6,7,8

I have concerns with the #8 (new trainer) and #7 (current favorite but a lot of questions with the 2 month layoff and no workouts at Saratoga…it might win but it won’t be a value given the unknowns).

For the horse I like to win I have now filtered down to 3,5,6

I have seen that the TSP Power Ratings have: 3-7-5-8/6-4/1-2

The TSP Power Ratings also throw out the 1-2. When using the TSP Power Ratings I like to lean on using one of the Top 5 horses for my win spot. Once I have selected one or multiple horses for the win spot, then I am open to anyone for the 2nd or 3rd spot (3rd if I am betting a trifecta). So, I would have 3,5,6,7,8 as my top horses…the same five I got to after my handicapping….but I then removed 7 &8 for the reasons cited above.

I am left with 3,5,6 for my “Win” or 1st Place spot in an exotic. I am then open to any horses for 2nd Place…and this race seems wide open to me. I don’t really have 1-2 horses I like for 2nd Place, but instead really like anyone but the 1-2…and of course the 4 because it is scratched.

Taking all this into account, I come up with the following exacta…

$1 Exacta Wheel
1st: 3,5,6
2nd: 3,5,6,7,8
Total Cost: $12

Post Race Update: The order of finish was 3-7-1-6 and the 3-7 exacta paid back $14.40 for every $12 wagered.

We lost $12 on yesterday’s example…let’s see how we do today. Hopefully the favorite is out of the top spot and we should get a decent price!

Good luck!

bookmark_borderSaratoga Handicapping #1 – July 17th, Race #7

I plan to do these race breakdowns a few times this month to provide insights into basic horse racing handicapping. Eventually developing them into an article for TheSharpPlays.com.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND…HORSE RACE HANDICAPPING IS COMPLEX. Just look at a racing form and you will see all sorts of numbers and information. Unless I were to write a book, which I do not have interest in doing, there is no way I can take someone who knows nothing about horse race handicapping and turn them into an expert. I learned horse handicapping over a period of YEARS…reading several books, taking the time to look at a racing form and learn what each part of it meant, etc. So, I will try to do a Cliff Notes version, but there will likely be A LOT of things you will need to educate yourself on in the process. If you have a desire to learn…you will need to put in effort. If you do not have a desire to learn…quit now and save yourself a ton of time.

I am going to Race #7 at Saratoga today.

For this race, the TSP Power Ratings show the following breakdown: 10/1/4-9-7/5-2-8-6-3

Since the breakdown was posted, the #2 horse was scratched.

Alright, so the next step is to open the racing form to Race #7. You can obtain a racing form from DRF.com (Daily Racing Form) at the cost of $4.25 for the “Classic” form. Here is a copy of the racing form at BRISNET.com (CLICK HERE).

Now here is where this could become a 100 page thesis. How do we decipher the form. I will touch on parts of what I am looking at, but if this is of interest to you then I would say to visit https://www.wikihow.com/Read-a-Racing-Form.

My first step is to scroll through the form and just take a look at the horses. The notes can be very helpful to limit the horses I am interested in.

So, in the notes, I see the following…

#1) I see he switches to a high percentage jockey, the trainer has a 37% win rate when a horse comes of a claim (a “Claimer” is a type of race where owners can agree to purchase a horse prior to the race being run), the horse finished 3rd in its last race and the jockey for today has been hot over the last 7 days…winning 7 races, coming in 2nd in 3 races and coming in 3rd in two races out of 21).

Just based on the notes and not diving into anything too technical yet, I like what I see with the #1.

#2) The horse won its last race (at BAQ which is Belmont at Aqueduct on July 7th…a 7 furlong race on the dirt which was a fast track and the horse was in a $20,000 claimer…which means owners could have claimed it for $20K). However, I see a negative note that the trainer is poor with a horse in his 3rd race of a layoff only winning 7% of his starts.

I will pass on this horse because I don’t like betting on horses off a win. Typically when a horse wins the owner/trainer will move the horse up in class or perceived class and so a back to back of wins is often a little tough. Sure it happens…but it is a lower probability situation.

The horse is also scratched so no need to bother with it.

#3) The horse won its last race and had a sharp 3 furlong workout on July 8th…I like seeing horses off a good workout. However, there are two negative notes…the horse is moving up in class off the win and the horse’s speed figures (the bold numbers under “SPD” on the form portion of the records) are poor com pared to the other horses in the race. I will toss this one out for now.

#4) The horse was a favorite in its last race and lost, but the trainer has logged 18% winners after his horse lost as a favorite.

Not a bad horse and one worth noting. So, now I am looking 1 and 4 at this point.

#5) Won its last race and had a strong workout BUT as we can see and what I discussed above about why I don’t like horses off a win…the horse is moving up in class from the last race. So, it will be facing tougher competition. Granted it blew away the last field it faced…the move up in class is still a concern. A possible horse for the end of a trifecta wager.

#6) Another horse that won its last race. However the trainer does win 28% of its races off a claim. Interesting horse…but I don’t think strong enough.

#7) This horse has a lot going on…it switches to a high percentage jockey, it drops in class, it moves from a route (long distance) to a sprint (short distance), it adds blinkers (which is helpful for horses that get distracted while racing) and it has the fastest speed of any horse in a race. The problem is it showed declining form in its last race. However, when I check the last race comments…the horse was bumped at the break, was 6 wide at the first turn and then 4-5 wide at the second turn. Being wide will kill the speed of the horse and fatigue it rapidly…so it is no wonder it had a shitty race. Interesting horse here.

So, now I am eyeing 1,4,6,7

#8) Uh oh…another winner of the last race. It has had a sharp workout and it had a very strong speed rating in its last race. However, the horse has not raced in 2 months so it could be a little rusty and this trainer has 0 wins in 30 starts when the horse has been away for 46-90 days…I’ll pass.

#9) The horse drops in class, is moving back to a sprint (from long distance racing) and is tied for the best dirt speed among today’s starters. The problem is the horse has not raced in more than 8 months…so it can be tough to come off that long of a layoff. It would be nicer if I could see that recent workouts were blistering and thereby the horse is returning to form…but I don’t see it. I’ll pass.

#10) We have the favorite here. The horse is tied for the highest last race speed rating and is coming off a win. I don’t like that the horse is coming off a win. When I look, the race was a $20,000 allowance just like this one. The horse won that race by 4 length (I can see this in the “FIN” column for the last race). It’s a decent margin to win by…but the owner/trainer is putting him in the same class of race here…not moving him up off the win? It could be because he is changing tracks and just wants the horse to get familiar with racing at Saratoga…but that also points to me that the trainer might not feel the horse is ready yet to be competitive. So, clearly a good horse, but at 2/1 I am concerned on the value I might get. It’s a horse I will note for my exotics.

At this point I have reviewed all the horses and I like 1,4,6,7,10.

The TSP Power Ratings ranks the horses as 10/1/4-9-7/5-2-8-6-3

I am concerned I won’t get much value by betting the 10 on my wager. It’ll be the favorite and go off as a negative value. So, it might win, and it is a good on-paper horse hence the “10/” in the TSP Power Ratings, but I will not win long-term betting horses if I bet the favorite on top of my wager.

So, I am going to do a $1 exacta wheel as follows…

1st Place: 1,4,7

2nd Place: 1,4,6,7,10

The wager will cost $12. In a normal situation I would probably only bet 1 to 2 horses for the 1st place spot, but I just want to use this as an example of narrowing down a field using the TSP Power Ratings and the racing form.

The order of finish was 5-1-3-10. The exacta lost $12.

So, in the first place spot I put the 1,4, and 7. One of these needs to win the race. In the second place spot I put 1,4,6,7,10…one of these needs to finish second. If one of the horses I have to win does win and one of the horses I have for second comes in second…I win my exacta! I removed the #6 from the top spot of my exacta because it is way down on the TSP Power Ratings. I like it, so I will use it only for 2nd place. I also removed the #10 from the top spot because the exacta won’t pay much if it wins and it’s better to bet for value.

I have gotten the above by just using the notes and a couple little dives into the past performance. Perhaps you can take the time to see what I am reading when I do dive into the past performance. I will break down past performance a little further in the next article. The goal of these is just a step by step approach to handicapping.

I want to get this out so I apologize for grammar as I did not proofread before publishing. Any issues, please let me know!

Good luck!

bookmark_borderTSP Live Education – Sunday Night Baseball Fade

To save myself from repeating this every Sunday during baseball season, here’s a quick breakdown of one of the few public fade angles that actually works—and has for nearly 30 years.

🏝️ Where It Started

My first role in sports betting was making Sunday Night Baseball markets for an offshore book. It gave me a front-row seat to how the action flowed and what made this one MLB game each week so unique from a betting standpoint. What jumped out early—and kept proving true over time—was this:

Fading the public on Sunday Night Baseball just works.

🚫 Not All Fades Are Equal

Blindly fading the public is a trap most bettors fall into—and over time, that approach ends up being a 50/50 coin flip. You’ll win some, lose some, and get juiced out just like the public.

But Sunday Night Baseball is different.

When the public is showing medium or heavy action on a side or total, fading that lean has been a long-term winner. I don’t bother with minor public interest—it has to be clear and notable action to qualify…but that’s not all…to really amp up the performance of this wagering angle, there’s something more…

✅ The 3-of-8 Rule

This isn’t just a blanket “fade the public” approach. I use eight proprietary filters to evaluate each matchup. A minimum of three must be met for a play to qualify as an official Sunday Night Baseball public fade.

It’s a disciplined, data-supported strategy—not a hunch or guess…and it has been working beautifully since 1999!

Good luck!

bookmark_borderTSP Live Education: Counter Buys, In-Play, 2nd Half Wagers & MORE!

On March 14th, 2024, I released a wager in TSP Live on Xavier/UConn UNDER 149.5. Not long after, a counter buy hit on the OVER 149 and higher. That shift presented a prime example of how to handle market movement, adjust betting strategy in real time, and even walk away with wins on both sides of a total.

Let’s break it down—this is a masterclass in handling counter buys and in-play edges.


💡 What Is a Counter Buy?

A counter buy occurs when sharp money hits both sides of the same wager, just at different times.

It’s not a head fake (which sees low early volume followed by massive later betting once limits rise). Instead:

  • Example Head Fake: $1,000 on UNDER → $10,000 on OVER later
  • Example Counter Buy: $1,000 on UNDER → $2,000 on OVER later

Counter buys show disagreement between sharp groups, but both sides are valid, and that volatility opens up unique opportunities—especially in live betting.


🔀 How to React When a Counter Buy Hits Against Your Position

When the OVER 149 hit after our UNDER 149.5 wager was posted, here’s how I approached it on Telegram:

1. Consider In-Play Bailout or Middle

  • A similar counter buy on March 13th (Oklahoma/TCU UNDER 144) didn’t allow for a buyout—in-play price never hit the target.
  • For Xavier/UConn, the in-play market dropped to 145.5 early—creating a tight 4-point middle:
    • Pre-bet: UNDER 149.5
    • In-play buyout: OVER 145.5
    • Middle zone: 146 to 149

⚠️ Tight middle but an option for nervous bettors.


🎯 Advanced In-Play Strategy Based on Counter Buy Targets

🧠 My Target Math (Sharps on OVER 149):

  • Take the worst price hit by sharps (e.g. OVER 150)
  • Subtract 9 points
  • Add a hook in your favor

So:
150 – 9 = 141 → Target = OVER 140.5

✅ That price did hit in-play with 8 minutes left in the game.

I didn’t bail, but shared the target and strategy for those who wanted to hedge, middle, or reposition.


🧮 Halftime Opportunity: The 2H Middle

Halftime total = 67
2H total = 80

If you took OVER 80, your scenarios looked like this:

  • Final total 147:
    • Win pregame UNDER 149.5
    • Push on OVER 80 → ✅ Profit
  • Final total 148 or 149:
    • Win both bets → ✅✅
  • Final total 150+:
    • Lose pregame UNDER
    • Win OVER 80 → ✅

This was a viable way to create a multi-out middle or partial hedge.


📊 Final Result: UConn 87 – Xavier 60 = 147 Points

Let’s look at how it all shook out:

Wager TypeResult
Pregame UNDER 149.5✅ WIN
In-play OVER 140.5 (target)✅ WIN
Halftime OVER 80➖ PUSH
In-play OVER 148 (bailout option)❌ LOSS (but successful hedge)

That’s a beautifully played middle and a reminder that with the right info, you can:

Cash both an OVER and an UNDER in the same game.


🛠️ Key Takeaways for Bettors

🔄 1. Use Counter Buys to Find In-Play Edges

If the counter buy hits pregame and the price is gone—don’t chase. Wait.
Let the game develop and look for an in-play entry at or better than the sharp number.


🔎 2. Set In-Play Targets Based on Sharp Behavior

Example formula:

  • Take the worst price sharps hit (e.g., OVER 150)
  • Subtract 9
  • Add the hook = Target: OVER 140.5

Apply the same in reverse for unders.


🧘 3. Don’t Panic—Have a Plan

When rookies see a counter buy, they freak. You don’t need to.

  • Use middles, in-play, or 2H wagers to minimize exposure
  • With patience and discipline, you can turn scary situations into net profit

🔐 Power of TSP Live and In-Play Betting

This is what sets TSP Live apart:

  • Sharp market insight
  • Live market guidance
  • Flexibility to act as lines evolve

In-play bettors who follow TSP info closely often perform exceptionally well because they can:

  • Enter at better prices
  • Hedge smartly
  • Middle effectively

🏁 Final Word

You don’t need to panic when sharp money disagrees. You just need to be prepared, have targets, and use the tools at your disposal.

On March 14th, the “disagreement” between sharps gave you a chance to win both sides of a total.

Use this strategy going forward—especially during March Madness—and watch how your edges multiply.

Thanks for reading. Good luck this March and every day you’re in action! 🧠🔥💰

bookmark_borderTSP Live Education: Parlay Edge Based on Straight Bet Win Percentage

The first chart shows your chances of cashing the parlay size listed based on your straight bet win percentage. “SB Win %” stands for “Straight Bet Win Percentage”. So, if you hit 50% of your straight bets, you have a 25% chance of cashing a two leg parlay.

The second chart below shows the breakeven price you would need on your parlay based on the chance of winning the parlay as laid out in the first table. So, when your parlay is providing a payout ABOVE what is shown, you have value. In the second chart, “300” = +300 payout = 3/1 odds. So, since a two leg parlay of -110 prices yields a +265 payout at your book, by hitting 52.5% of your straight bets your fair value chances of hitting that 2 leg parlay is +262…but the book is paying you +265. So, you have value and an edge on two leg parlays.

In the case of a three leg parlay, with -110 prices, you are paid +595 by the book. So, if you hit 52.5% on your selections, you are in value since your fair value chances of hitting that three leg parlay (given your 52.5% win percentage) is +590…but the book pays you +595!

Your parlay value/edge over the house increases as your straight bet win percentage increases.

Good luck!

Parlay SizeSB Win % = 50%SB Win % = 52.5%SB Win % = 55%SB Win % = 57.5%SB Win % = 60%SB Win % = 62.5%SB Win % = 65%
225%27.6%30.2%33.13639.142.2
312.5%14.5%16.6%1921.624.427.5
46.2%7.6%9.2%10.91315.317.9
53.1%4%5%6.37.89.511.6
61.6%2.1%2.8%3.64.767.5
70.08%1.1%1.5%2.12.83.74.9
Parlay SizeSB Win % = 50%SB Win % = 52.5%SB Win % = 55%SB Win % = 57.5%SB Win % = 60%SB Win % = 62.5%SB Win % = 65%
2300262231202178156137
3700590502426363310264
415131216987817669554459
531262400190014871182953762
66150466234712678202815671233
712400899165674662347126031941

bookmark_borderTSP Live Education: Parlay Performance & The Strategic Value of Round Robins

As of February 28th, 2024, the Go Fast and Win and TSP Live Degenerate Portfolios show that parlays have a combined ROI of +11.7% on 301 wagers. So much for parlays being a “sucker’s bet,” right?

If you’re unfamiliar with the portfolios or how they’re tracked, visit:
👉 TheSharpPlays.com/portfolio-performance/
(Also linked under “Records & Logs” in the main site menu.)

But as people reviewed those numbers, the conversation quickly shifted:

“Can that parlay ROI be enhanced by using Round Robins?”

Let’s dig in. 🎯


🧠 What Is a Round Robin?

A Round Robin takes a single parlay with multiple legs and breaks it into smaller combinations of parlays. It’s a way to avoid the pain of just one loss killing a great ticket.

🔢 Example: 4-Leg Parlay Options

You can break down a 4-leg parlay like this:

OptionCombinationsOutcome (3-1 Day)Outcome (2-2 Day)Outcome (4-0 Day)
Six 2-leg parlays6+4.8 units-2.4 units+16.2 units
Four 3-leg parlays4+3 units-4 units+24 units
Combo6 (2-leg) + 4 (3-leg) = 10 totalMix return based on results

You can even add the original 4-leg parlay on top for 11 total parlays.

⚠️ Warning: DO NOT fall for those “second chance parlays” offered by books that pay partial if you miss one leg. The odds are garbage. Real Round Robins give you more value and control.


Is There an Edge to Using Round Robins?

Depends on the content you’re betting.

For the general public, who win <52.4% of the time, round robins are just another losing bet.
But for TSP content—with documented profitable parlay performanceYES, there’s a strategic edge.

🎯 When They Shine:

  • You’re confident in the legs but want partial protection from a 3-1 or 4-1 day
  • You want more frequent cashes than traditional parlays allow
  • You want to smooth variance during cold runs

🧍‍♂️ Round Robins for the Impatient Bettor

Let’s face it—parlays test your patience.

You could go 0-10, then hit two in a row and suddenly go from deep red to green. That works if you’re disciplined.

But if you’re the type who:

  • Needs to see frequent wins
  • Struggles emotionally with parlay variance

…then Round Robins are a good compromise.


💰 How Much Should You Risk on a Round Robin?

Here’s a guideline:

If you were originally going to bet 1 unit on a 4-leg parlay, but now prefer a Round Robin of four 3-leg parlays:

  • Bet 0.25 to 0.30 units per parlay
  • That’s a total exposure of 1 to 1.2 units, in line with your original intent

Don’t bet 1 unit per parlay and risk 4 units when you were originally risking 1.
✅ Think of Round Robins as a risk-splitting strategy, not a risk-inflating one.


⚠️ Reality Check: Betting Still Requires Patience & Strategy

Let’s clear this up now:

Round Robins won’t make you invincible.

Yes, the pro betting life looks glamorous—freedom, beachside bankrolls, fine dining, and total flexibility. But the dark side is real:

  • You can work 300 hours in a month and still lose money
  • You could be right most of the time, and still hit a cold run
  • This business rewards long-term grind, not instant gratification

Even Billy Walters, the most famous public bettor, would be humbled by the elite sharp groups I’ve known—people you’ll never hear about but who operate on a level most can’t fathom.


🧠 Round Robins: Just Another Tool in the Arsenal

They’re not the Holy Grail. They’re not a cheat code.
But they are useful when:

  • Markets are cold
  • You want parlay exposure without needing perfection
  • You trust the content behind the bets (like TSP portfolios)

Sometimes your gut tells you today’s a good Round Robin day—listen to it. Tools are only as good as the person using them.


🏁 Final Word

Round Robins are not a gimmick. They’re a smart way to spread risk, protect upside, and stay in the game—especially during choppy waters.

Used properly and within your risk comfort zone, they can be a reliable part of your strategy—especially with proven, profitable content behind them.

Good luck—and may your 3-1 days pay off like 4-0s! 🧠💵🔥

bookmark_borderTSP Education: Patience is a Virtue & The TSP Index

One of the hardest concepts to get across to bettors is this:

No matter how good you are, cold streaks are part of the game.

You’re going to have periods where you couldn’t pick the quinella in a two-horse race. If you truly want to avoid losing, the solution is simple:

Don’t gamble.

But if you’re reading this, your chances of walking away from gambling are probably the same as your chances of never experiencing a losing month:
ZERO.


🛡️ Minimizing Losses Is the Real Edge

Since you can’t avoid losses, the next best thing is learning how to minimize them when they hit.

One of the core tools I use for this is the TSP Index, which helps track whether sharp or public money is trending in the betting markets.

🔗 Check the Index here: TSP Index on TheSharpPlays.com
📘 Or dive deeper in this article: TSP Live Education: Using the Index

But instead of explaining how the Index works, let me show you how it helped optimize real-money results recently in both:

  • The Degenerate Portfolio (TSP Live subscriber content)
  • The Go Fast and Win Portfolio (free content)

📅 Real Example: Late December 2023 into January 2024

⚠️ December 28th – Index Hits 3.3

When the Index hits 3.3 or higher, it’s typically a sign that a sharp run is near its end, and regression is likely.

On December 28th, I alerted TSP Live subscribers that we were at that point.

❄️ Cold Period Follows (Dec 28 – Jan 7)

What followed?

  • 11 days of cooler content
  • The Degenerate Portfolio lost just -1.14 units

Not ideal—but thanks to tight bankroll management and cautious play, we kept the damage minimal.

🎯 The key: Anticipating the cold stretch and scaling risk accordingly.


🔁 The Turn: January 8–9, 2024

On January 8th, things turned:

  • Degenerate Portfolio: +0.45 units (Parlay + Straight Win on Washington/Michigan UN56.5)
  • Go Fast and Win: +0.20 units

The following morning, the Index turned upward, signaling a shift in market momentum back to sharp bettors.

💥 January 9th – Explosion of Wins

  • TSP Content (Free + Paid): 6-0 sweep
  • Go Fast and Win: 3-0 including a +210 DRAW in Italian soccer
  • Degenerate Portfolio: 3-0 on different wagers

Result:

  • Go Fast and Win: +0.52 units
  • Degenerate Portfolio: +0.40 units

Over just two days: +0.85 units regained after a cold stretch of -1.14 units.


🧠 Maximize Wins. Minimize Losses. Know the Environment.

The TSP Index isn’t a crystal ball. It can’t prevent cold runs.
But it can help you spot them early—and position you to capitalize when the turn hits.

📊 One glance at the Index each day can make a major difference.
It’s free, takes one minute, and it’s right here: TSP Index


🔒 Extra Value for TSP Live Subscribers

TSP Live members get an expanded version of the Index, which includes:

  • Daily activity levels by league/sport
  • Trend analysis (who’s in control: sharps or public)
  • Special alerts based on momentum shifts

This version goes beyond the surface and helps guide your strategy at a granular level.


🧘 The Mental Game: Accepting the Inevitable

Losses are part of this game.
You can’t always avoid them—but you can prepare for them, play smart, and keep them small.

❌ I wish no TSP Live subscriber ever had a losing day, week, or month…
✅ But that’s just not realistic.

What is realistic?

  • Ride the hot streaks 🚀
  • Play tight through the cold spells 🧊
  • Be ready to pounce when the trend flips 🔁

🏁 Final Thoughts: It’s a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Gambling isn’t easy. But it doesn’t have to be impossible.
You can bet daily and succeed if you understand the market environment and follow a smart, strategic plan.

TSP Live was built to teach those very strategies—refined over 30 years of personal betting and 20 years as a professional.

You won’t win every day.
But you don’t need to
You just need to stay in the game long enough to capitalize when the edge is on your side.

Good luck out there—and remember to bet smart!

bookmark_borderTSP Live Education: Must Win Scenarios – Player Incentives

As we close in on the end of the NFL season, bettors get obsessed with two major narratives:

  1. “Must-win” games for playoff contention
  2. Player incentives and contract bonuses

Let’s unpack both—and more importantly, let’s talk about how books already know all this and adjust accordingly.


🚨 Must-Win ≠ Must-Cover

Every year, casual bettors fall into the same trap:

“This team HAS to win, so they WILL win… and cover!”

Wrong. Books bake the must-win angle directly into the line—and often inflate it even further because they know the public will blindly back these teams.

So, while the team may be motivated, the price is rarely fair. In fact, it’s usually negative or neutral value at best.

💬 The Books’ Play:

“If the public is gonna hammer this team, we’ll make them pay for it.”


Fading Must-Win Teams: Not Perfect, But Profitable

Let’s be clear:

  • Fading must-win teams does not win 80–100% of the time
  • But done right, it grinds long-term profit

You can expect a win rate in the 54–57% range, which may not excite the casual gambler—but that’s a +3% to +9% edge against the house.

🎲 Casinos make millions on games with 1.36% edge.
Imagine what you can do with 3–9%.

🧠 Key Strategy:

  • Let the public inflate the price
  • Then fade the must-win team—especially against a motivated underdog

🔎 Example: Week 18 – Jacksonville vs. Tennessee

  • Jags opened at -3.5
  • Public ran it up to -5.5
  • Tennessee, at home and motivated, becomes the value side

Even if the Jags win, you’re backing the side that offers real value, not hype.


🪙 Player Incentives: Motivation ≠ Lock

The final week also brings contract bonuses into play. Players chasing stat milestones for big payouts attract tons of betting attention—especially on props.

🎯 But here’s the issue:

If someone on Instagram or Twitter knows about the incentive,
the book knows too—and the price reflects it.

Plus, you’re assuming:

  • The player will get the opportunity
  • The team wants them to get the bonus

Not always the case. Some teams rest starters, tweak game plans, or intentionally avoid triggering bonuses to save money.

⚖️ Betting props based on incentives?

  • Sometimes the player cashes and gets paid 💰
  • Other times, they vanish from the script 🫥

🔥 Popular Player Incentives (Heading into Week 18)

Here are some of the most talked-about bonus chases:

PlayerIncentive Goal
DeAndre Hopkins (TEN)49 receiving yards = $1M bonus
7 catches = $250K bonus
Chris Jones (KC)0.5 sacks = $1.25M bonus
Dalton Schultz (HOU)4 catches = $250K
6 catches = additional $250K (Total: $500K)
Austin Ekeler (LAC)110 total yards (rush + rec) = $100K bonus
Lavonte David (TB)0.5 sacks = $150K bonus

⚠️ Lines may not be posted yet, and again, the prices may be shaded toward public perception. Don’t expect value unless you’re sharp with timing or can read the market’s hesitation.


🧠 Final Word: Think Before You Follow the Hype

Whether it’s a must-win team or a player chasing a bonus:

  • Motivation doesn’t equal value
  • Books are ahead of the public narrative
  • Blind betting these angles = donating money

Instead:

  • Look for inflated lines to fade
  • Bet props only when the price reflects true value—not just social media buzz
  • Use data, logic, and discipline—not emotion or urgency

Bet smart. Think deeper. And as always—good luck in your action! 🧢💵

bookmark_borderTSP Live Education: Why Bet Exotics (Parlays & Teasers)?

❄️ Parlays & Teasers During Cold Runs: A Strategic Approach

Most people get the logic of using parlays and teasers during hot runs—the multiplier effect supercharges returns when you’re hitting. But what about during cold streaks?

Believe it or not, parlays and teasers have real utility during losing runs too—when used with intention. Here’s how I apply them based on 25+ years of betting success.

✍️ These are my personal strategies. You may disagree, and that’s perfectly fine—but I’m not changing them. They work for me.


🎯 Parlays: Managing Risk & Setting Up for Rebounds

I’ve written plenty about parlays already:

So I won’t rehash everything. But let’s focus on why I use them even when the market feels ice cold.

💡 Why Parlays Work During Cold Streaks:

  • Low Risk, High Upside:
    Betting one 3-leg parlay for 1 unit is often better than three separate straight bets at 1.1 units each.
  • Positioning for the Turn:
    When content turns, it often turns sharply positive.
    A well-placed parlay can capitalize on that swing with multiplied gains.
  • Flexibility:
    I may use parlays to lock in lines early that aren’t strong enough yet for full straight wagers, but I still like them.

Even in the cold, parlays let me stay active without overexposing my bankroll.


🔧 Teasers: Adding Edge in Tight Margins

Just like parlays, teasers can thrive in hot markets. But they’re also surprisingly valuable in cold ones.

🔍 Why Teasers Help in a Losing Run:

  • Many cold streak losses come by razor-thin margins.
    You’ve lived it—losses by 1 point, or worse, the hook.
  • Teasers give you extra points, which can turn:
    • ❌ A narrow straight bet loss
    • ✅ Into a teaser win
  • You’re also reducing total exposure. One teaser at 1 unit beats firing 2–3 straight bets at 1.1 units each when it’s cold.

🧠 My Golden Rule for Teasers

Only use teasers if you already like the play at the current spread.

Here’s what that means:

  • ✅ You like Miami -10 ➝ Teasing them to -4 adds value
  • ❌ You don’t like Miami -10, but do like -4 ➝ Avoid using them in a teaser

It seems counterintuitive, but I learned this from my betting Yoda, and it’s been gold ever since.

🚫 Teaser Traps I Generally Avoid:

  • Crossing zero (e.g. -3 to +3)
  • College football totals
  • Basketball teasers

⚠️ I tend to avoid these—not always. Sometimes the spot justifies it. But it’s rare.


🧩 What About Wong Teasers?

Honestly? I think books have caught up to the Wong teaser angle.

They’ve adjusted lines to kill off the edge. So I don’t put too much stock into it anymore—just another tool that’s lost its punch.


🔁 To Recap: Strategy Over Emotion

During cold streaks:

  • Parlays let you stay active with minimal risk and maximum upside if a sharp turn hits.
  • Teasers help you survive the tight-loss hellscape and stretch thin edges into wins.

And always remember:

Use these tools when they make sense—not out of boredom or frustration.


🏁 Final Word

Cold streaks test every bettor. But they’re also opportunities—if you’re using the right tools in the right way.

Parlays and teasers aren’t just hot-run heroes. When used strategically, they can also be lifelines in the ice.

Stay smart, bet intentionally—and as always, good luck in your action! 🔥

bookmark_borderTSP Live Education: What Is a Rollover & Why Use It?

Rollovers are a term I started using to describe a simple but powerful betting strategy:
Taking the risk and profit from one wager and rolling it into another.

It’s like a parlay’s cousin—offering leverage—but with the flexibility and control of a straight bet.

👉 Want the full breakdown?
Read the full article: What Is a Rollover?


💡 Why Use a Rollover?

The power of a rollover lies in its low risk, high upside profile.

  • Start with as little as 0.1 units of bankroll
  • Roll your winnings + original risk into the next bet
  • Watch it compound—just like a parlay, but step-by-step

📈 Example:

In March, I started a public rollover on Twitter with 0.1 units.
After multiple successful steps, I turned it into +7.3 units of profit.

That’s a 73-to-1 return on my original risk! 💥


🛡️ Perfect for Uncertain Markets

Rollovers shine when:

  • 📉 The TSP Index is trending down
  • 🌀 The markets are mixed or foggy
  • ⚠️ You’re cautious about sharp angle quality for the day

With a rollover, you can still engage with the market without overexposing your bankroll.

🧠 You stay active if the content hits. If not, your downside is tiny.


🧬 Feed the Degenerate—Responsibly

Let’s be real—we all have a little degenerate in us. 🎲

We like action. We enjoy sweating a game on TV.
But that doesn’t mean you should risk full units recklessly.

Instead of firing 0.5 or 1 unit just to have action, use a low-risk rollover:

  • ✅ You get that dopamine hit of having a wager
  • ✅ You keep your risk minimal
  • ✅ You give yourself a shot at a big return

And if it builds into something bigger—1, 2, even 3+ units—you’re still only exposed on that original 0.1 units.

Even if it loses late in the sequence…
It was house money. And you had fun getting there.


🚀 When It Hits… Oh Boy!

The real thrill of a rollover?

Watching your wins snowball.

Each leg adds momentum. The pressure grows. The payout potential explodes.

And when you land that final bet?
That original 0.1 unit risk turns into a monster return—and you only risked pennies to get there.


🎯 Final Thoughts

Rollovers aren’t just a strategic play—they’re a mentally refreshing one too.

You protect your bankroll. You keep the action alive.
And if the run is on… you’re riding it all the way with minimal downside.

Good luck and happy rolling! 🔁💰